HistoricalMullet: Right Here, Right Now
Originally published 1-25-2011 17:04est
If you missed the fall of Communism playing out live on TV back in 1989-1990….you can catch a similar series of events – this time over the internet as the contagion of protest spreads over the North African regimes. The black-swan in Tunisia of a man immolating himself in protest, geared up into a full scale leaderless revolution, called the Jasmine Revolution, leading to the ouster of that countries 30 year dictator. Now the protests have spread, to Algeria, Egypt and other areas. Here is a video of Egytpian protestors actually chasing away Egyptian riot police,(1) and others standing up to a fire-hose truck and disabling it by pointing the hose into the air. (2) Although riots are not rare, this kind of forceful resistance to the police almost NEVER happens in Egypt, which is a very repressive police state. It’s of the same importance I think as the man standing in front of the tank in Tianemen Square protests – and if these videos spread virally (which I assume they will) I think the riot sizes will increase dramatically tomorrow and subsequent days. A good description of what makes these revolutions “different” is provided here. These are not religious extremists, these are a new generation of angry youths using Facebook and Twitter (3) to organize similar (4)to the Green Revolution in Iran. (5)
There are now reports that Mubarak’s family in Egypt has fled the country, which would be stunning as it’s another sign of perceived weakness, and Egypt has a far more repressive regime than Tunsia.
UPDATE: A good update from the day with video clips embedded from a reporter who followed the protests. Tonight in Cairo the Parliament is Surrounded. (6)
UPDATE: No word on the involvement of the Muslim Brotherhood, they’ve been atypically silent, which is a good thing. The worst outcome would be an Iranian style religious revolution putting a militant theocracy in the center of Mediterranean & Middle East politics.
(1) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uc000YDVY5o&feature=youtu.be
(2) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtTUsqra-MU
(3) http://www.newsweek.com/2011/01/15/tunisia-protests-the-facebook-revolution.html
(4) http://www.fastcompany.com/1720692/egypt-protests-mubarak-twitter-youtube-facebook-twitpic
(5) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution_(Iran)
(6) http://www.theawl.com/2011/01/tonight-in-cairo-the-parliament-is-surrounded
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Tim C.
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Original Comment thread:
Martinhesselius 1-25-2011
!!!
Woolsy 1-25-2011
What worries me is the aftermath.
Who drives a revolution is not always who takes over after. For example, the 1917 Russian Revolution was neither precipitated by nor led by the Bolsheviks, but they eventually took over.
The difference between being able to organize, through social media, random street protesters and having an organization ready and willing to take governing over is huge. From your Newsweek cite: the grassroots protests which don’t really have any leaders yet. There is no political party or unifying figure behind the demonstrations,
I’m just worried that, especially in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood will take over and we will go from a dictatorship friendly to the US to an Islamic fundamentalist dictatorship unfriendly to the US.
I’m worried we’ll see a repeat of Central and South America from last century – only two choices for governments, neither good, but only one who is at least US-friendly, and we’re about to go from the at least US friendly to the US hostile. Plus add in Muslim extremist.
Chapel_of_words 1-26-2011
That’s a very valid worry in both countries, Tunsia however more than Egypt. In Tunsia this literally came out of left field and there’s a big “now what” after the President fled In Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood is, so far, on the sidelines and uninvolved (we hope they remain that way). They could remain problematic. Fortunately El Baradei (former UN Nuclear Inspector) has returned to the country in preparation for what is suspected as a Presidential run in 2011. He is widely respected and has joined past non-religious opposition efforts, he’s not necessarily Lech Walensa, but he’s the closest thing they’ve got.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_ElBaradei#Possible_presidential_candidacy
I’ve been watching to see where he goes/what he does in terms of the riots, but have a hard time pinning him down right now.
Algeria will probably be the last to fall (as the most experienced/oppressive in terms of violent counter-insurgency) and Yemen the most likely that, if it were to fall, it would go to religious militants (having a very strong AQ group already entrenched there).
Less clear is Libya.
Tim C.
Woolsy 1-26-2011
Interesting denial. Very short and specific:
Muslim Brotherhood: We didn’t participate in Tahrir Square demonstrations.
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/mb-we-didnt-participate-tahrir-square-demonstrations
Other reports of their participation:
– Demonstrators, security forces clash in Mattariya
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/demonstrators-security-forces-clash-mattariya
– 1000 people protest in Mansoura
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/1000-people-protest-mansoura