HistoricalMullet: Order & Date of Days of Rage Protests in the Middle East
Originally posted 1-29-2011
Although riots and protests have broken out in many areas, here are a list of countries and days where major actions are being planned by country. These all bear the name “Day of Rage”, which was the initial effort in Egypt January 25th, that culminated in the confrontation four days later on Friday the 28th at the end of morning prayers. I’ve added the google-twitter-latest pages for each protest, which is a good way of getting live updates as it combines twitter updates as they happen, with related news article and volume statistics. The statistics are interesting because you can actually navigate twitter volumes by date/time, going back to see the development and/or change of a trend. For example, right now, there’s a joke going around with these dates talking about them being “set” by the Arab League (which is of course a joke), but if you backtrack in time you see them being utilized to organize protests before the emergence of the joke.
Sudan January 30th
Yemen February 3rd
Syria February 5th
Algeria February 12th
Libya February 30th
Keep in mind, circumstance matters – each country has a very different environment, context, and set of conditions. Economic, political and religious factors are different. Niger had protests today between Christians and Muslims in which 9 were killed, those have to do more with ongoing religious tensions than what’s going in Egypt. Also planned protests may fizzle before they arrive, or move forward in time. Saudia Arabia has a far more oppressive/authoritarian regime than Egypt, but a far better economic picture due to oil revenues. There’s also a possiblity, I think, that the MO of these protests transports itself to non-Middle Eastern countries where similar circumstances (generally well educated, well net-connected, young populations in oppressive regimes) may try similar things, like say down south with Mr. Chavez.
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Tim C.
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logiphage 1-31-2011 17:47UTC
I’m not sure what to think about these events. I’m sure what the left and right media want us to think, so I’m pretty sure those simplistic positions aren’t the reasonable ones.
I do know Egypt, like Iran, is almost certainly doomed to look back fondly on Mubarak after the new regime takes over whether it’s another Theocracy (likely imo) or a ‘People’s Republic’ as you alluded. Not that I’m condoning it but western stooge dictators are usually not as bad as their successors.
There’s only one good result I see possible, we could stop wasting money on ‘foreign bribesaid’ supporting a country who is not so covertly anti-american. Maybe we could even get in the habit of ending foreign aid.
chapel_of_words 1-31-2011 19:34 UTC
Since these things usually have 12-15 contributing causes, everyone can easily “look out over the crowd” and find their pet-cause. The early uprisings were non-religious in nature, which was a very good sign. But now the Muslim Brotherhood has stepped in, and revolutions rarely end with the same crop of leaders as they end (our own being one notable exception). It took 15months, thereabouts, before Iran settled itself out and it certainly wasn’t looking theocratic when it started the uprising against the Shah.
This is really one of those situations where, at least in my shoes, I take things day-by-day in terms of evaluating “what will happen”. There are milestone/threshold points that I mentally establish where I say, “if this line is crossed, then this is a foregone conclusion”. The last one of those was if the police failed to hold the riots, and Mubarak had to call out the Army. At that point I predicted Mubarak would be gone, that was a foregone conclusion.
Three milestones I’d put on the table, if I was forced to provide such;
1) Look to the emergent of a charismatic leader(s) that becomes the “voice” of the opposition and recognized by the street. El-Baradei, as good as he might be for the west does not quality as chariasmatic. Map the background/influence of those leaders, and you can map the foreward momentum of where Egypt might go (think about Yestlin’s charismatic role in the coup against Gorbachev).
2) Look for the return of prominent, but previously banned/illegal leaders back to the homeland. Al-Gannushi (founder of the Islamic Renassaince) has returned to Tunisia. He promises a moderate touch, and past performance is not an indicator of future results, but that’s a big variable in the mix of Tunisia. He also qualifies as a “charismatic” and thus might emerge as the voice of the opposition in Tunisia, per #1.
3) Increasing evidence of fragmentation leading to blakanization and secretarian conflict. A) Watch to where the police/security forces go. If they aren’t included in a solution, there’s a high probability they might form a militant insurgency (think of the disbanded Saddam loyalists and the mess they caused in Iraq). B) Civil society is already fragmenting leading to neighborhood watch/vigilante patrols. Once you arm, organize and provide for your own security, it’s not a far leap to arm, organize and act offensively/defensively to perceived threats. C) Evidence of divisions within the Egyptian Army in terms of “which” way to go.
I know the aid we’ve provided Egypt is a sore point right now, but there are some different perspectives of that aid than what you might get from the MSM. For instance think of it as a $1b/year peace-tribute on behalf of Israel, paid to Egypt, financed by American taxpayers. That tribute has bought 30 years without a major sovereign-state conventional conflict in the western Middle East (e.g. non-gulf states). That’s quite a return. Also the Egyptian military that we have so strongly financially supported is also the Egyptian military that has NOT opened up .50cal machine guns on protesters (yet), the Chief of Staff of the Egyptian Army was at the Pentagon last week. Our own guys in green had a chance to have a face-to-face, no BS, without political minders present conversation about what role the Egyptian Army could play, for fair or foul. No idea what was said, but as I pointed out, they haven’t started shooting protesters yet, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there wasn’t some influence from the American contacts over the years about the role of a citizen’s army in situations like these. As I pointed out, it’s day-to-day, tomorrow could change everything. That’s why revolutions are too tricky to predict what will ned up happneing.
logiphage 1-31-2011 19:41 UTC
That’s exactly my take, ‘tribute’.
It’s conceivable the military is influenced by the US bux coming in but I think it’s more likely they simply want to keep their options open. A civilian slaughter is a commitment.