Author Archive

Understanding the Terror Contagion Hypothesis

TLDRUpFront: A mass shooting terrorist incident in Buffalo, NY, appears to be a part of the continuing Great Replacement terror contagion. The terror contagion hypothesis is a new way of understanding the spread of violent radicalization, which leads to terrorist attacks such as in Norway, Charleston, Christchurch, Pittsburgh, El Paso, and now Buffalo.   FullContextInTheBack:

Mid-Game Part 3: Five Scenarios through Mid-May

TLDRUpFront: Part 3 of 3 of the mid-game assessment forecasts five scenarios for the Russian Ukraine war over the next few weeks through mid-May, rated most likely to least likely.

March 10th Russia’s Belts of Kyiv Strategy

TLDRUpFront: Western narratives of an imminent military collapse are misleading as Russia demonstrates the continued ability to maneuver large, combined-arms forces. These are taking up “belts” position around Kyiv, cutting off northern cities, and continuing to steady advances on multiple fronts expanding the Russia-Crimea land corridor.

March 8 Update Russia Completes Land Corridor in South while Manipulating Humanitarian Gestures

TLDRUpFront: Russia completes Crimea-Donbas land corridor by exploiting humanitarian acts, including ceasefires and evacuation corridors, to prep battlefield conditions for upcoming operations. Though this doesn't help civilians, it signals prioritization and intent across the battlespace. Increasingly, that strategy aims to encircle Ukrainian forces and cities before swamping them like a rising tide.

Russia Close to Connecting Land Bridge to Crimea

TLDRUpFront: Continued advances in the south mean Putin is only a few days from major operational success in connecting Crimea to Russia if Mairpoul falls. And even as offensives stall in punishing sieges in the north, only Mairpoul along with Mykolaiv and Odesa to the west keep Russia from taking the southern coastline of Ukraine.

Improve Your Arguments: Russo-Ukrainian War Edition

TLDRUpFront: As we approach the first full week the InfoMullet provides a special "improve your arguments" Russu-Ukranian War edition. 

Russo-Ukranian War First Day

TLDRUPFront: The first day of full fighting shows that Ukraine is not simply going to collapse in the face of a multi-front Russian invasion. With over 500K+ combat troops between all sides now in the theatre, fierce fighting is occurring for control over airports, bridges, towns, and vital military targets.

Six Scenarios for a Russian Escalation in Ukraine

TLDRUpFront: Eight years into the Russo-Ukrainian War an escalation to full-spectrum conventional operations appears likely. Russia's strategic goal in the region is to keep Belarus, Ukraine, and Georgia from ever being part of an economic or military bloc that can threaten it. Military buildup on Ukraine's borders now provides six potential scenarios to achieve this

Impeachment’s Indictment is Insurrection’s Incitement: Part II

TLDRUpFront: A mega-mullet focusing on the standards of judgment, relevant laws, and analysis of the evidence on the key charges facing President Trump in the Senate Trial. Part two of two.

Impeachment’s Indictment is Insurrection’s Incitement: Part I

TLDRUpFront: A mega-mullet of the key issues: charges, evidence, procedures, and Constitutionality arising during President Trump’s Senate Trial. But if you want to skip to the end, just watch for the Senate vote on a Secret Ballot. That alone will probably determine his fate. Part I of II.