Author Archive

InfoMullet: The Young Street Returns in Iran

TLDRUpFront: After a brutal November repression of protesters in the new "Young Street" in Iran left a 1,000 dead and over 25,000 wounded; December was a quieter month for the regime in Tehran. The 40th day mourning rites for the November deaths, falling on December 25th and 26th, were preemptively disrupted by security forces which

Q8 What will ISIS look like by the end of 2020 in the Middle East specifically in terms of strength and structure? Will it continue to be a degraded and simmering problem, eradicated, or reform into something more enduring and virulent?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s this?)   I actually made this forecast back in 2016, at a conference in Europe where I was presenting on ISIS and what would happen if they were collapsed as an emerging-state actor. I describe some of that presentation in this link below, but the TLDR is that ISIS

Q9 Where will the stock market be in a year, relative to where it is now?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s this?) I’m forecasting that there will be no recession in 2020 and thus NYSE will be higher than it is today. By how much is a question mark, though I see slowing (rather than accelerating) growth rates as we continue the historic boom in stock market prices. Wall Street

Q10 What are some nagging long term global problems that you see getting better this year?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s this?) I remain overall optimistic about where the world is heading even with some significant concerns on trends that keep me up at night (see Q13 for United States system risks and Q14 for global). The top two trends that blow-my-mind away whenever I think of them in the

Q11 What does the East Asia strategic picture look like in context of South Korean, Japanese and US relations?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s This?) My forecast is that little changes to the core of US relationships with South Korea and Japan over 2020. Despite the pressures of trade wars, President Trump’s demands for greater security-cost sharing, and other pressures – the incentives for collaboration remain just as strong if not growing stronger.

InfoMullet: Coda to Act I & Intro to Act II in the Aftermath of Soleimani

TLDRUpFront: A week out now’s a good time to review what’s happened in the aftermath of the strike against Soleimani. In this post I walk through how erroneous mental-models caused so many to miss Iran’s de-escalation signals, what those signals were, and leveraging what we now know to make a forecast of what may happen

Q12 Will there be movement in firearms regulation along any of the following axes- suicide, accidental discharge, domestic abuse, criminal usage, or terrorism?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s this?) The short answer is no on the Federal level due to it being a national election cycle and Impeachment, international conflict, and a potential government shut-down will steal all the available oxygen out of the room for such movements. But that’s an uninteresting answer so let’s expand this

Q13 How does polarization between Red and Blue evolve in the US, politically and geographically, and how does that play into long-term electoral politics of the US?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s this?) My forecast is that Red and Blue political cultures remain polarized over the coming years. This polarization will only abate when the global-populist wave cresting in both left and right ideological systems peaks and crashes; the buffer of prosperity which allows Red and Blue to functionally hate each

Q14 Beyond 2020 what trends concern/interest you most in the next 10 years?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s this?) I’m a cynical-optimist; optimistic about our future as humanity and cynical about individual humans and their anxieties and insecurities getting the better of them. As described in Q10 contrary to popular belief, the world is objectively getting better in concrete areas all the time. And the processes which

Q15 Given the premise Britain leaves the EU, what is the best way forward with Brexit?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s this?) Full disclosure, I don’t think Brexit is a good idea and I’m not sure that with everything that’s happened and the way the ambiguity has persisted there is such a thing as a ‘clean’ Brexit any longer. The anxieties that Brexit has created in business sectors may be