Foreign Affairs Archive

InfoMullet: Principles of Unrestricted Warfare

TLDRUpFront: As China continues to exert pressure on multiple fronts its important to understand a tenet of their strategic doctrine. "Unrestricted Warfare" advances a state-actor strategy of asymmetric conflict based on the principle of additive complexity that seeks to cause a seizure of complex systems. The strategy seeks to bridge combat power disparity between two

InfoMullet: The Dictator’s Dilemma – Hong Kong Case Study

TLDRUpFront: Even as the wildfire of COVID19 rages we look ahead to what the world will look like after the first wave. Originally published in November, the Dictator's Dilemma uses the Hong Kong protests to illustrate a crucial dynamic: how small initial calls for reform over legitimate grievances can escalate into mass civil protests, violent street

InfoMullet: Pocket full of Posies (pt2 of 4)

TLDRUpFront: The second of a four-part series as the United States, and the world, begins tipping-over from COVID-19. The next nine days are going to be hairy. This InfoMullet focuses on the intermediate economic impact preparing the mental model of readers for what’s going to become apparent between now and March 31st .

InfoMullet: Ring Around the Rosies (pt1 of4)

TLDRUpFront: The first of a four-part series as the United States, and the world, begins tipping-over from COVID-19. The next ten days are going to be hairy. This InfoMullet tries to prepare the mental model of readers for what's to come by making several forecasts of what happens between now and March 31st, and what

InfoMullet: Comparing Five Most Common National Strategies to COVID-19

TLDRUpFront: We examine the five emerging national strategies to confront COVID-19: People’s War, Pandemic Panopticon, Mobilization & Lock Down aka “People’s War Lite”, Fire Break, and Induced Herd Immunity. We contrast this with the recent national approach in most of Europe, the United States and Canada of “business as usual” and how that early response

InfoMullet: The FAQ & the Furious 18 questions to begin asking.

TLDRUpFront: As governments worldwide respond to the COVID-19 pandemic journalists and advocates need to be asking the right questions. This FAQ provides a starting point with eighteen suggested questions to ask government officials at local, state/province, and national levels in developed and developing countries alike.

InfoMullet: (3/24 Update!) COVID curiosity. Outbreak or containment and why #FlattenTheCurve matters.

TLDRUpFront: (3-24 UPDATE) Italy, Spain, and France are all set to exceed China in confirmed cases within the next week. And the United States will surpass even those countries in the next 1-2 weeks with the most confirmed cases globally. Death rates in Italy, Iran, Spain, and France continue to increase as the decline in

InfoMullet: Adjusting our Mental-Model of COVID-19

TLDRUpFront: A growing fear in the United States is that COVID-19 may kill millions. This fear is based on an incomplete mental-model of how viruses work fed by COVID-19 reporting that highlights facts in isolation from context and triggering our cognitive biases in how we evaluate risk. This InfoMullet provides a mental model for understanding

InfoMullet: CoronaVirus Mass Ejection

TLDRUpFront: The outbreak of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan province of China has resulted in 2,000 confirmed cases and as many as ten times that number may remain undiagnosed. China has quarantined 50M people in an effort to halt the spread even as the country is on the move for the New Years. As

InfoMullet: The New Young Street Escalates in Lebanon, Returns to Iraq, and Persists in Iran

TLDRUpFront: For several months now the InfoMullet has been tracking a wave of instability hitting countries lying south of 30 Degrees North that have large youth populations, systemic economic weakness, and rising distrust and disgust not just with a dictator or political party – but the entire system of governance itself. Today we review one