2020AMA Archive

Q10 What are some nagging long term global problems that you see getting better this year?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s this?) I remain overall optimistic about where the world is heading even with some significant concerns on trends that keep me up at night (see Q13 for United States system risks and Q14 for global). The top two trends that blow-my-mind away whenever I think of them in the

Q11 What does the East Asia strategic picture look like in context of South Korean, Japanese and US relations?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s This?) My forecast is that little changes to the core of US relationships with South Korea and Japan over 2020. Despite the pressures of trade wars, President Trump’s demands for greater security-cost sharing, and other pressures – the incentives for collaboration remain just as strong if not growing stronger.

Q12 Will there be movement in firearms regulation along any of the following axes- suicide, accidental discharge, domestic abuse, criminal usage, or terrorism?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s this?) The short answer is no on the Federal level due to it being a national election cycle and Impeachment, international conflict, and a potential government shut-down will steal all the available oxygen out of the room for such movements. But that’s an uninteresting answer so let’s expand this

Q13 How does polarization between Red and Blue evolve in the US, politically and geographically, and how does that play into long-term electoral politics of the US?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s this?) My forecast is that Red and Blue political cultures remain polarized over the coming years. This polarization will only abate when the global-populist wave cresting in both left and right ideological systems peaks and crashes; the buffer of prosperity which allows Red and Blue to functionally hate each

Q14 Beyond 2020 what trends concern/interest you most in the next 10 years?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s this?) I’m a cynical-optimist; optimistic about our future as humanity and cynical about individual humans and their anxieties and insecurities getting the better of them. As described in Q10 contrary to popular belief, the world is objectively getting better in concrete areas all the time. And the processes which

Q15 Given the premise Britain leaves the EU, what is the best way forward with Brexit?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s this?) Full disclosure, I don’t think Brexit is a good idea and I’m not sure that with everything that’s happened and the way the ambiguity has persisted there is such a thing as a ‘clean’ Brexit any longer. The anxieties that Brexit has created in business sectors may be

Q16: What areas are ripe for civil unrest internationally in 2020? What factors are feeding the potential conflict and how might it play out?

2020AMA Forecast to the Question: What areas are ripe for civil unrest internationally in 2020? What factors are feeding the potential conflict and how might it play out?

Q17: What will the significant players in the Middle East: Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia gain or lose in 2020?

2020 AMA Forecast in response to the Question: What will the significant players in the Middle East: Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia gain or lose in 2020?

Q18 Will we see increased attacks on US embassies in 2020? Would you consider non-state actors or state actors as the biggest transnational threat?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s this?) I predict no loss-of-life related to an attack on a US Embassy or Consulate in 2020 and a second forecast of no “significant attacks” (e.g. Benghazi style.) There may be protest actions aplenty, but targeting US Embassies and Consulates, especially post Benghazi is just bad idea theatre. Counter

Q19 What systemic trends do you see for the EU? Pulling apart or growing together?

New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What’s this?)   I think what’s obvious, and overstated, is the downside risks to the European Union. It’s easy to be bombarded by Brexit news, as well as other separatist and Eurosceptic movements in France, Spain, Hungary and others and think that the EU is struggling or has a dim