TLDRUpFront: ISIS conducted a complex attack in the center of Baghdad killing over 30 and wounding over 100. The time, location, and method all symbolize the deadly return to the city ISIS once terrorized putting an exclamation point on their operational recovery in Iraq. Widespread insurgency could come next.
TLDRUpFront: For several months now the InfoMullet has been tracking a wave of instability hitting countries lying south of 30 Degrees North that have large youth populations, systemic economic weakness, and rising distrust and disgust not just with a dictator or political party – but the entire system of governance itself. Today we review one
TLDRUpFront: A week out now’s a good time to review what’s happened in the aftermath of the strike against Soleimani. In this post I walk through how erroneous mental-models caused so many to miss Iran’s de-escalation signals, what those signals were, and leveraging what we now know to make a forecast of what may happen
TLDRUpFront: A quick backgrounder on General Soleimani, commander of Iranian’s special forces and cornerstone of Iranian foreign policy, killed by a US military strike last night outside the Baghdad Airport. Possessing once-in-a-generation capabilities crossing military strategy and diplomacy both across state and non-state actors. Removing him creates a question as hard to answer as asking
TLDRUpFront: Protests continue to occur in Lebanon and what had been protests turned into a limited uprising this week in Iraq. While the US was consumed with self-inflicted chaos in Syria that is still sorting itself out, the book-ends of semi-stability on either side of the country are falling apart. Not that Iraq was all
TLDRUpFront: It’s been a busy week outside the United States as well for domestic disturbances. In Iraq, Egypt, Hong Kong, France, Ecuador and Britain domestic instability that didn’t originate from President Trump took center stage. Taken as a whole it points to a gathering trend towards instability.
TLDR Upfront: The siege of Mosul has begun. This battle represents the last major offensive in Iraq to clear ISIS of holding territory in the country.
On the eve of the US invasion of Iraq the "Coalition of the Willing" leaves much to be desired, as does the case for war on the basis of an imminent threat. This is the last post in the "Between 9/11 and the Iraq War" Historical Mullet series. Original discussion is included in the first