Putin Archive

Mid-Game Part 3: Five Scenarios through Mid-May

TLDRUpFront: Part 3 of 3 of the mid-game assessment forecasts five scenarios for the Russian Ukraine war over the next few weeks through mid-May, rated most likely to least likely.

Russia Close to Connecting Land Bridge to Crimea

TLDRUpFront: Continued advances in the south mean Putin is only a few days from major operational success in connecting Crimea to Russia if Mairpoul falls. And even as offensives stall in punishing sieges in the north, only Mairpoul along with Mykolaiv and Odesa to the west keep Russia from taking the southern coastline of Ukraine.

Improve Your Arguments: Russo-Ukrainian War Edition

TLDRUpFront: As we approach the first full week the InfoMullet provides a special "improve your arguments" Russu-Ukranian War edition. 

Russo-Ukranian War Day 6: Memento Mori

TLDRUpFront: Logistics failures halt advance towards capital even as Russia warns Kyiv residents to flee. Grozny Rules for Kharkiv and Chernihiv in the north and continued expansion in the Crimean breakout, surrounding Maripoul.

The Russian invasion looks nothing like it should. Why? And what happens next?

TLDRUpFront: Comparing doctrine to results Russia's invasion of Ukraine is going badly so far. Whether because of incompetence, institutional sycophancy, or too-clever strategy: Putin has miscalculated. The invasion of Ukraine may go down as the largest strategic military blunder since the Iraq Invasion of 2003 – even if he makes territorial gains in the Donbas

Russo-Ukraine War Day 3: Ukrainian Success Risks Escalation to ‘Grozny Rules’

TLDRUpFront: Ukraine is holding its own as the Russian military continues to struggle. But President Putin appears ready to unleash "Grozny Rules": a systemic approach of targeting dense populated areas with conventional and unconventional attacks. Used in Aleppo, Syria, and Grozny, Chechnya the goal is to crush resistance from a standoff range without having to

Russo-Ukrainian War Day 2: Not the Invasion Putin Planned

TLDRUpFront: First 48hrs of shock & awe failed to deliver a knock-out blow to Ukrainian defenders, allowing them to slow Russian advances, inflict losses, and set up defensive positions in key cities. Russia will need to grind out advances in the north. However, if Putin’s goal is gaining a land-strip in the south – and

Putin Cards on the Table for Invading Ukraine

TLDRUpFront: Over the course of a single day President Putin of Russia officiated a "discussion" of Russian national security advisors all advising him to do what he already wanted: recognize separatist republics of Donatesk and Luhansk as independent sovereign states under threat of genocide from Ukraine. By the end of the day he had set the

Putin Plays his Cards for Invasion

TLDRUpFront: Putin has four cards to play on the table creating a rhetorical pretext for invasion. Since the logistics are already in place - all that's left to do is watch for these four cards. 

Russia Draws its Hand for for Invasion (or more diplomacy)

TLDRUPFRONT: Russia's beginning to show its hand on what pretext for invasion, if they choose to, they'll be using over the next few days. And the cards in the hand signal their choice of scenario: diplomacy or one of five different military actions.