TLDRUpFront: A mega-mullet overview of all the context you're missing on the Russian Navalny protests, Putin's hold power, and how a Dictator's Dilemma could expose a fracturing among the elites leading to a possible collapse of the regime in Russia in the next few years.
TLDR Upfront: Contrary to doomsayer predictions of a new WWI between Russia and Turkey based on the assassination of an envoy in Ankara yesterday, pretty much the exact opposite happened. The beginnings of a Red Wedding scenario, a framework of cooperation between Russia, Turkey and Iran - excluding the US, NATO and the United Nations
TLDR Upfront: Aside from obvious short-term civil and human rights concerns arising from Erdogan's purge, a medium-term risk looms large. Turkey's permanent exit off the pathway to European Union membership may signal an end to fifty-five year effort to integrate Turkey and the European mainland. Such a shift, especially if it included ejection from NATO
In the fall of 2002, Putin released a national security doctrine which opened the door for limited military preemption. This set the stage for Bush to release his own national-security doctrine making the case for preemptive regime change. Post includes original commentary in first comment.