TLDRUpFront: Turkey announces additional targets in its intervention into northern Syria including strategic towns on the road to Kobani. Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga, invoking the spirit of Kobani, threaten to respond by deploying into Syria. Meanwhile Russia and the US largely stand behind their respective partners without taking much of an active role as the conflict
TLDR UpFront: After a serious US communications blunder about intentions along the northern Syria border, Turkey intervened militarily into Syria Civil War for the second time. Launching artillery strikes against the Kurdish town of Afrin northwest of Aleppo, Syria - a ground movement is expected soon. Though limited in scope - the move may seek
TLDR UpFront: Well-dressed’ Turkish security guards abused diplomatic immunity to attack Armenian and Kurdish protestors demonstrating outside the White House during President Erdogan’s visit. Two arrests have been made, and 12 were injured, including a DC police officer. This attack occurs within the context of increased tension in Turkey itself over a disputed Constitutional referendum
TLDR Up Front: Pressed on two fronts in north central Syria there is evidence ISIS is relocating its capital from Raqqa to Deir ez-Zor. Local Kurdish Syrian forces have been battling to encircle Raqqa for months; while a mix of Turkish, Syrian rebel, and Kurdish Syrian forces have battled ISIS – and sometimes each
TLDR Upfront: Contrary to doomsayer predictions of a new WWI between Russia and Turkey based on the assassination of an envoy in Ankara yesterday, pretty much the exact opposite happened. The beginnings of a Red Wedding scenario, a framework of cooperation between Russia, Turkey and Iran - excluding the US, NATO and the United Nations
TLDR Upfront: Despite strategic realignment an escalating pattern of instability within Turkey puts it on a dangerous path with an uncertain immediate future.
TLDR Upfront: Aside from obvious short-term civil and human rights concerns arising from Erdogan's purge, a medium-term risk looms large. Turkey's permanent exit off the pathway to European Union membership may signal an end to fifty-five year effort to integrate Turkey and the European mainland. Such a shift, especially if it included ejection from NATO