TLDRUpFront: Part 3 of 3 of the mid-game assessment forecasts five scenarios for the Russian Ukraine war over the next few weeks through mid-May, rated most likely to least likely.
TLDRUpFront: The strategies for conventional attacks on large cities are not the same as in the 20th Century when bypassing, encircling & besieging or direct assault were the order of the day. Now, adopting a belts strategy and Grozny Rules with a goal of turning population centers into feral cities may be the strategy of Russia
TLDRUpFront: Part 1 of 3 of the mid-game assessment likens the Ukraine battlespace to a game of Go beginning the mid-game, including analysis of Russian and Ukrainian material losses and total force investment by Russia into the current conflict.
TLDRUpFront: Western narratives of an imminent military collapse are misleading as Russia demonstrates the continued ability to maneuver large, combined-arms forces. These are taking up “belts” position around Kyiv, cutting off northern cities, and continuing to steady advances on multiple fronts expanding the Russia-Crimea land corridor.
TLDRUpFront: Russia completes Crimea-Donbas land corridor by exploiting humanitarian acts, including ceasefires and evacuation corridors, to prep battlefield conditions for upcoming operations. Though this doesn't help civilians, it signals prioritization and intent across the battlespace. Increasingly, that strategy aims to encircle Ukrainian forces and cities before swamping them like a rising tide.
TLDRUpFront: Continued advances in the south mean Putin is only a few days from major operational success in connecting Crimea to Russia if Mairpoul falls. And even as offensives stall in punishing sieges in the north, only Mairpoul along with Mykolaiv and Odesa to the west keep Russia from taking the southern coastline of Ukraine.
TLDRUpFront: As we approach the first full week the InfoMullet provides a special "improve your arguments" Russu-Ukranian War edition.
TLDRUpFront: Logistics failures halt advance towards capital even as Russia warns Kyiv residents to flee. Grozny Rules for Kharkiv and Chernihiv in the north and continued expansion in the Crimean breakout, surrounding Maripoul.
TLDRUpFront: Comparing doctrine to results Russia's invasion of Ukraine is going badly so far. Whether because of incompetence, institutional sycophancy, or too-clever strategy: Putin has miscalculated. The invasion of Ukraine may go down as the largest strategic military blunder since the Iraq Invasion of 2003 – even if he makes territorial gains in the Donbas
TLDRUpFront: Ukraine is holding its own as the Russian military continues to struggle. But President Putin appears ready to unleash "Grozny Rules": a systemic approach of targeting dense populated areas with conventional and unconventional attacks. Used in Aleppo, Syria, and Grozny, Chechnya the goal is to crush resistance from a standoff range without having to