24 May 2026
Why I don’t use generative AI except under controlled circumstances.
I study generative and agentic AI and I refuse to use it outside of controlled environments. The most charitable reason is my work requires “crafting” vs. “growing.” Every piece of work I do has to be done to exacting specifications, as part of an overall design, intended to fit together and function for a given
07 Apr 2026
Condemning the Strikes on Sharif University
TLDRUpFront: No loops or forecast today. Just a personal statement to condemn the targeting of Sharif University in the ongoing war with Iran.
01 Apr 2026
1 APR Update: Diplomacy is War by Other Means
TLDRUpFront: If war is politics by other means, then diplomacy is war by other means. A system model to understand the Trump (US) and Khamenei (Iran) diplomatic system structure that has a bit more nuance than "TACO v. B" or "performative rites of agitation."
22 Mar 2026
Goodfellas Scenario Forecast
TLDRUpFront: Beginning tomorrow through April 9th, there is a likely window Houthis will enter the war by closing the Strait of Bab el Mandeb and commencing barrage attacks. This sets up a very unlikely, but not impossible, contingency for a Goodfellas scenario where, even if the US signals ceasefire and withdrawal, the Axis of Resistance
20 Mar 2026
Deep-Dive on Risk of Iranian Terrorism in the US
TLDRUpFront: Iran is foreign state sponsor of terrorism - but the the nature and frequency of their efforts in the US is not at the scale, or risk, most Americans think. Unless they're Iranian dissidents or government officials.
19 Mar 2026
Closing the Straits, Escalation Ladders & Targeting Energy Infrastructure 19 MAR Update
TLDRUpFront: It may take less time to effectively destroy the Gulf’s productive capacity in oil and LNG than it will take to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, rendering that question moot. And we've got at least 24 days before this the first offramp opportunity I see which is more than enough time to do it.
16 Mar 2026
Iran War Updated Forecast & Comparison to Actual Data as of 16 MAR
TLDRUpFront: A forecast update and comparison of the reference behavior modes of most likely scenarios at start of war compared to actual data of barrage and proxy attacks.
14 Mar 2026
Attack Helicopters as Interceptors
TLDRUpFront: Helping understand how not all 'interceptors' used against Iran come from Patriot or Thaad missile batteries, building off of 4 MAR Analysis.
12 Mar 2026
12 MAR Forecast Update on Iran War & Minimum Duration Forecast
TLDRUpFront: Barring an unexpected capitulation, the most likely scenario now seems to be the war continuing for another 31 days, at *least* of Iran launching continued intermittent barrages and strikes around the region, with escalating air operations by the US against Iran and Israel against Lebanon and less against Iran. Look for the Houthis to
05 Mar 2026
Iran War 05 MAR Forecast Update
TLDRUPFront: Final bit of modelling related to Sunday's forecast - dynamic hypotheses reference modes for the forecast model shared Sunday night. The four images depict four scenarios of how a US-Iranian war could play out from a joint all domain operations (JADO) standpoint.