22 Nov 2023
Ceasefire & Hostage Exchange in Hamas v. Israel War: Analysis
TLDRUpFront: Talks between Hamas, Israel, and the US facilitated by Qatar and Egypt resulted in a deal that will exchange ~50 Israeli hostages held by Hamas for 150 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel and a 4-day ceasefire. Designed as a ratcheting mechanism, if this works, there are opportunities to continue ratchets of additional exchanges and
06 Nov 2023
Dynamics of Radicalization, Extremism & future of AI with Simulations – Guest Discussion at UiB MINDS
Nearly two-hour discussion with graduate students at the University of Bergin (UiB) Masters in System Dynamics Society (MINDS) ranging across violent radicalization; terror contagion hypothesis; and the Hamas v. Israel war. Also discussed were system dynamics methods as well as possible future roles for AI/AGI in simulations and society.
21 Oct 2023
Science of Peace & War: Guest Appearance on Steve Keen & Friends YouTube LiveStream
Link to 2hour live-stream YouTube. Click on the image or the URL. Topics include recent research on violent radicalization and commentary on the Hamas v. Israel conflict. URL: https://youtu.be/mxIRbxW4MZg?t=826
20 Oct 2023
Domino Effect
TLDRUpFront: Trump destroys everything he touches, and he's had the GOP in a bear hug for years. Now, with his business under a death sentence, key insiders pleading guilty and agreeing to cooperate with 2020 election interference cases, even Trump's once-allies in the House GOP face death threats from the MAGA community they once embraced.
17 Oct 2023
MegaMullet: Dynamics of Atrocity Scripts in Conflict
TLDRUpFront: A MegaMullet addressing the flood of atrocity scripts on social media: What are the different kinds of scripts used in local and foreign narratives? Why are we seeing more now? Why would actors share them? What do they hope to gain? What are best practices for navigating these materials safely?
10 Oct 2023
MegaMullet: Hamas v. Israel War
TLDRUpFront: Hamas can start a war, and Israel can win the war, but neither can win the peace. Failing to get to the roots of mutually held grievances by Palestinians and Israelis is just pulling weeds. Permanent dismantling of Hamas and the removal of Netanyahu’s government, and repudiation of his governing style, are required to
27 Sep 2023
Can an AI LLM write a 3k word scientific paper? What about a 100k-200k word book?
TLDRUpFront: Why current AI LLMs may be able to write a 3k-word scientific paper, but not a 100k-word scientific book or a 220k-word gaming rulebook exposes how LLM memory, token sizes, hallucination, and hard and soft limits create limits-to-growth on both the size and accuracy of a given LLM project.
17 Sep 2023
Exploring “Game-Changer” Fallacies in AI, Drones, and AI Drone Swarms through Ukrainian’s “Cardboard Drone” Attack
TLDRUpFront: AI, Drones, and even AI Drone Swarms could be considered like the introduction of IEDs into modern battlefields, definitely have an impact at a moment in time, but any 'game change' influence they have in the moment is mitigated by adaptation counter-adaptation dynamics between competitors over time.
07 Aug 2023
Niger Coup risks Regional War
TLDRUpFront: Continuing instability from ISIS & AQ Sahel conflicts and a string of emerging military dictatorships has put the 15-country ECOWAS bloc on a path for a regional war. 'Suspended' ECOWAS members, plus Wagnar are backing Niger's coup, while 'current' members, plus Chad are considering military intervention to restore the former government, likely supported in
10 Jun 2023
Conflict Simulations & Policy Analysis: Guest Appearance on Steve Keen & Friends YouTube LiveStream
Link to 2hour live-stream YouTube. Click on the image or the URL. Topics include general discussion on simulating conflict and how to use simulations for analysis and policy. URL: https://youtu.be/-qSUvQupZck?t=740