Monthly Archive:: January 2020
28 Jan 2020
InfoMullet: Splitting the Baby on Calling Witnesses for Senate Trial
TLDRUpFront: We propose a compromise for consideration by the Senate on calling new witnesses and subpoenas for the President’s Trial. Let the House Managers and President’s Legal Team both present their requests and reasons why. Then let the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court rule on the relevance of each request. Then the Senate, in
26 Jan 2020
InfoMullet: CoronaVirus Mass Ejection
TLDRUpFront: The outbreak of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan province of China has resulted in 2,000 confirmed cases and as many as ten times that number may remain undiagnosed. China has quarantined 50M people in an effort to halt the spread even as the country is on the move for the New Years. As
22 Jan 2020
InfoMullet: Organized Division
TLDRUpFront: The opening day of President Trump’s Senate Trial focused on debating and passage of the Organizing Resolution governing Trial Procedures where the precedent of President Clinton’s Trial proceedings loomed large. At the end of the day with a GOP Majority Senator McConnell held the field getting most of what he and President Trump wanted.
20 Jan 2020
InfoMullet: The New Young Street Escalates in Lebanon, Returns to Iraq, and Persists in Iran
TLDRUpFront: For several months now the InfoMullet has been tracking a wave of instability hitting countries lying south of 30 Degrees North that have large youth populations, systemic economic weakness, and rising distrust and disgust not just with a dictator or political party – but the entire system of governance itself. Today we review one
20 Jan 2020
2020 AMA Forecasts Overview
An Annual Tradition I continued the New Year’s Eve tradition where Facebook users could “Ask me Anything” (AMA) and receive an improvised, off-the-cuff, unsourced, but what I hope is an interesting forecast on where we’re going in 2020. This year the questions were harder, more varied, and reflected what I sensed was a growing pessimism
19 Jan 2020
Q1: Which is more dangerous to the Iranian people, suppression by the regime in Tehran or a violent fall of the government and the chaos that may result?
2020AMA Forecast to the Question: Which is more dangerous to the Iranian people, suppression by the regime in Tehran or a violent fall of the government and the chaos that may result?
18 Jan 2020
Q2 Who fares better in the 2020 Presidential Election?
New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What is this?) Barring certain contingencies, President Trump gets re-elected by a narrow electoral margin but loses the Senate and House. This is due to Trump leveraging a success-to-the-successful archetype in turning out “missing white” voters who mobilize to vote for him. But the success-to-him of this strategy costs the
17 Jan 2020
Q3 Will the Impeachment process heal or harm the current world opinion of the United States?
New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What is this?) Most of the world bases its opinion on the US as to whether it acts, collectively, more as an ally as a threat. Administrations serve as a proxy for this understanding both by their action and signaling of action. Trump is the biggest signaling President to ever
17 Jan 2020
InfoMullet: Third Time’s a Charm – Impeachment
TLDRUpFront: For the 3rd time in history the House has impeached a President. Never before has a Trial resulted in conviction. Understanding the Trial means understanding “sole power” and “inherently political”. As we cover the Trial check back here for our previous coverage and resources to gain context.
16 Jan 2020
Q4 Does impeachment cost the Democrats the House?
New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What is this?) No. Per my forecast response to Q2 above, I’m predicting the Democrats retain the House and take the Senate. Specifics to the election are contained in that post. Here I’m going to focus on why. What we’ve seen as the reliable dynamic throughout the impeachment process is