Q4 Does impeachment cost the Democrats the House?
New Year’s Eve 2019 Forecast (What is this?)
No. Per my forecast response to Q2 above, I’m predicting the Democrats retain the House and take the Senate. Specifics to the election are contained in that post. Here I’m going to focus on why.
What we’ve seen as the reliable dynamic throughout the impeachment process is that opinions on the President and Congress are cemented in place, that is then put into a securely locked vault, which is itself encased in concrete, and taken to the bottom of the ocean where a drill will bury it thousands of feet under the crust of the earth from which no change will ever emerge.
Bottom line is that impeachment is an inherently political process, and the balancing feedback loops of the overall political system which are driving partisan divides are overpowering any positive feedback loops which might create growth or decline away from this mean. Think of it like wheels spinning in a rut. The more it spins, the deeper the rut, the deeper the rut the more change needed to lift the wheel out of it, and the more spinning will just create a deeper rut. The “ruts” here are support levels for Democrat and Republicans across the country, and they match pretty closely where opinion polls are on impeachment.
The dynamics that effect the general election are going to come from other systems. Namely the success-to-the-successful archetype within the Republicans where growth in “Brand Trump” results in decline of “Brand GOP” in a number of factors, costing it crucial House seats it could win otherwise (given the macro factors) and keeping the House in Democratic hands.