25 Mar 2020

MulletApp: COVID-19 Death Rate Interactive Charts by Country

Posted in InfoMullets, Mullet Apps By js On March 25, 2020

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TLDRUpFront: An interactive application allowing users to create their own InfoMullet-style COVID-19 Death Rate Chart comparing 5 countries from a data-set of over 160 updated daily. Death Rates tell us what percentage of the infected are dying and how that is changing over time and are useful for educating why #FlattenTheCurveMatters, awareness, and advocating government responses.

FullContextInTheBack:

We’ve created this MulletApp so that users can select their own combination of countries and compare death rates between them. Our sources are the World Health Organization (WHO) Daily Situation Reports which currently tracks over 160 countries and updates daily. As the WHO adds more countries they should show up here.

USING THE CHARTS

At this time the charts are not sized well for mobile – we suggest using a computer or pad device.
If the chart is flowing into the side bar making it hard to read, adjust the zoom on your web browser. (CTRL and the “-” Key)
Below the chart is a bar where you can add or remove countries. To remove a country click on the x. To add a new one either scroll down the list or type in the country name in the bar and it will search for matches.
To ensure clarity of the graph a maximum of five countries are allowed.
We recommend keeping China, or using South Korea, as baseline comparisons as both have a complete life-cycle of behavior to compare against.
You can hover over any line to see the value of a point, or download the chart as a *.PNG file to share.
We are hoping to add to CSV download capability soon but don’t have it at this time.

UNDERSTANDING THE CHARTS

Death Rates over time tell us the changing impact of COVID-19 as it begins to overwhelm health care systems that have failed to #FlattenTheCurve as well as underlying conditions of demographics. A rising or declining Death Rate indicates dynamically changing conditions in the country. These could indicate a collapse of healthcare provision or policy adjustments that only test admitted patients which reduces the confirmed case count to those needing hospitalizations and thus could inflate the Death Rate. Regardless a rising Death Rate should be taken seriously while the Rate of Change in confirmed cases remains high as it indicates worsening outcomes for that tested population. Use it with the Confirmed Cases Chart (see below) to understand the size of the population impacted by this Death Rate.

The rate is calculated by taking the WHO Daily SitRep death counts and dividing them by the confirmed cases on that day. The chart is set to only display 0-10% for greater clarity. These charts are adjusted to all begin at the date of first confirmed patient even if contagions started at different calendar dates. This enables an evaluation over the life cycle of a contagion. Also to avoid noise the death rate calculation was only applied once a country had passed it’s 20th death related to the infection. Keep in mind the ‘death rate’ is of confirmed cases only and should not be taken as applying to the total population of a country!

As daily testing protocols struggle to keep pace with the pandemic, Confirmed cases are lagging far behind Actual Infected. This may also artificially inflate death rates at a point in time. To understand the potential of this impact look up the Country in question to compare Confirmed to Actual Infected.

For more information on the charts including caveats on the quality of information please see our original article introducing them.

For more information on the mental model of COVID-19 and pandemic system structure see our in-depth article written in early March.