Monthly Archive:: July 2022

Shinzo Abe Assassinated in Japan

TLDRUPFront: A quick backgrounder on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who was assassinated on a campaign stop in Japan Friday. FullContextInTheBack: At about noon local time Friday in Japan the former Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, was shot twice by what authorities are calling a home-made shotgun by a 41-year-old former member of

Analysis of Contingencies in Russia v. Ukraine & Far-Future Forecasts

TLDRUpFront: If Scenario #1 is most likely forecast through summer and fall – what contingencies could shift that forecast and another scenario? What is on the horizon in the long term for Russia and Ukraine?

Manifesto of a Radical Moderate

TLDRUpFront: For 20 years, I have identified as a Radical Moderate. Here is a draft of what that means to me. I release it imperfectly, not as a final product but as the beginning of a wider dialogue on what it means to be a Radical Moderate and what changes are needed to form a

Violence in America (2022 Edition)

TLDRUpFront: The 2022 update on the historical patterns and current dynamics of violence in the United States. No policy arguments. Only data: 22 charts on 13 topics from credible sources. Includes notes on methods and sources. Bookmark the post and share the post, or individual charts from it, as may be useful in the coming

Reversion to a Mean Strategy: System Memories & Latent Constraints in Russia’s War on Ukraine

TLDRUpFront: A deeper dive into strategies and doctrines of Russia's invasion of Ukraine through a lense of complex systems analysis to help explain what has happened to now, and what is likely to happen in the future.