Dynamics of Radicalization, Extremism & future of AI with Simulations – Guest Discussion at UiB MINDS

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Nearly two-hour discussion with graduate students at the University of Bergin (UiB) Masters in System Dynamics Society (MINDS) ranging across violent radicalization; terror contagion hypothesis; and the Hamas v. Israel war. Also discussed  were system dynamics methods as well as possible future roles for AI/AGI in simulations and society.

This is just one in a series of UiB MINDS seminars being planned on system dynamics topics so be sure to like/subscribe/follow their channel!

Click on the image or the URL. Sources discussed in the video are provided below the image.
URL:  youtu.be/NbmwBw9B-ow


Representation of complex space in a cube with the causal loop diagram causal pathways depicted as top-down or bottom-up within that space.

The system of violent radicalization is portrayed as top-down and bottom-up causes in a complex system.




Data Collection, Dynamic Hypothesis & System Structure

T. Clancy, B. Addison, O. Pavlov, and K. Saeed, “Root causes of radicalization: the terror‐contagion hypothesis,” System Dynamics Review, p. sdr.1749, Oct. 2023, doi: 10.1002/sdr.1749.

Exploratory Model

T. Clancy, B. Addison, O. Pavlov, and K. Saeed, “Contingencies of Violent Radicalization: The Terror Contagion Simulation,” Systems, vol. 9, no. 4, p. 90, Dec. 2021, doi: 10.3390/systems9040090.

Policy Simulation

T. Clancy, O. Pavlov, B. Addison, E. Palmer, and K. Saeed, “Systemic Innovation for Countering Violent Radicalization: Systems Engineering in a Policy Context,” In submission., 2023, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3990014.

Calibrated Model

T. Clancy, V. Stephens, and K. J. Oviatt, “Role of Cultural Scripts in Public Mass Killings: Empirical Observations & Simulations of two School Shooting and a White Supremacy Terror Contagions,” in 41st Annual International System Dynamics Conference, Chicago, Jul. 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publicat…

Counter Extremism’s Project: “Alternative Pathways Conference: The Rehabilitation and Reintegration of Extremism-Related Offenders”

Select Video from Conference 


Original work modeling ISIS including policy analysis

T. Clancy, “Theory of an Emerging-State Actor: The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) Case †,” Systems, vol. 6, no. 2, p. 16, May 2018, doi: 10.3390/systems6020016.

T. Clancy, “Application of Emerging-State Actor Theory: Analysis of Intervention and Containment Policies †,” Systems, vol. 6, no. 2, p. 17, May 2018, doi: 10.3390/systems6020017.

Independent systemic review including E-SAM

K. van der Zwet, A. I. Barros, T. M. van Engers, and P. M. A. Sloot, “Promises and pitfalls of computational modelling for insurgency conflicts,” Journal of Defense Modeling & Simulation, p. 154851292110736, Jan. 2022, doi: 10.1177/15485129211073612.

Most recent E-SAM work including systemic review feedback, expanding data sources, and modeling Ukraine & Myanmar cases

T. Clancy, K. J. Oviatt, V. Stephens, and E. Palmer, “Systems Engineering with Generalizable Statistical Demographics, Sentiment & Social Identity,” presented at the International System Dynamics Society, Chicago, Jul. 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publicat…


T. Clancy, S. P. Langarudi, and R. Zaini, “Never the strongest: reconciling the four schools of thought in system dynamics in the debate on quality,” System Dynamics Review, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 277–294, Jul. 2023, doi: 10.1002/sdr.1740.

A. Naugle, S. Langarudi, and T. Clancy, “What is System Dynamics Modeling? Defining Characteristics and the Opportunities they Create,” 2023, doi: 10.48550/ARXIV.2307.11801.

T. Clancy, “Expanding our Vocabulary: Operational Causal Terms for Studying Problems in Complex Systems,” WPI Department of Social Science and Policy Studies Working Papers, 2023, [Online]. Available: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=4598183


T. Clancy, “Systems Thinking: Three System Archetypes Every Manager Should Know,” IEEE Engineering Management Review, vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 32–41, Jun. 2018, doi: 10.1109/EMR.2018.2844377.

AI Cataloging Posts on the AGI Doomer Debates


– 2023 Alternative Pathways Conference National Press Club  

ISDC 2023 Video of Terror Contagion Plenary 

ISDC 2023 Video Emerging-State Actor Demographics, Sentiment & Social Identity Parallel

– ISDC 2023 Hackathon Hype-Harm-Control System Structure Walkthrough

– ISDC 2023 Hackathon Hype-Harm Control Presentation Entry