Nine Things to Know as US enters Israeli-Iran Conflict by Bombing Nuclear Weapons Sites

President Trump announced that the US bombed three Iranian nuclear sites, including the underground facilities of Fordrow. He will address the nation at 10PM EST.

We don’t know, or rather I don’t know, -how- the US attacked the sites. Whether it was a symbolic strike to show US support for Israel, a war-defining salvo of MOAB bunker busters attempting to destroy the facilities, or something in between. This matters a lot.

Based on the type of strike, Iran may not choose to retaliate against the US. The heavier, the more consequential the strike, the more likely the retaliation.

Iran cannot strike the continental United States conventionally. If they do retaliate, and it’s not at Israel, most likely options are towards the Strait of Hormuz (to shut off oil supply to Europe and China) or US Naval base at Qatar, just across the Persian Gulf. However, and this is really important…Iran may choose to retaliate against Israel (whom they are already striking), do a choreographed retaliation that’s heavily signaled to minimize casualties (as they did last year in response to Israel targeted killing of Hamas’s leader in Iran) ,or not retaliate at all to break the escalation chain. However, if they do launch major attacks in an effort to shut down the Strait of Hormuz,or attack naval forces or bases in the Persian Gulf, the US current policy and doctrine would have a major conventional response to eliminate Iranian attacking forces.

Since the US attacked Iran, Article 5 of NATO is not in play. This is currently a US/Israel v. Iran conflict right now. Iran would have to attack the US territories to create an Article 5 escalation drawing NATO into the conflict. Attacking naval bases overseas would not trigger that clause.

Watch the reactions of Erdogan in Turkey, Putin in Russia, and Xi in China. Erdogan is the only player in the region able to confront Israel conventionally, but as a (sometimes) US ally, it’s not clear he would enter. Expect him to play peacemaker. Putin’s tied in knots over Ukraine already and has relations with both Israel and Iran. But… they would love an opportunity for payback for US support to Ukraine. Don’t expect Putin to do anything but play peacemaker publicly, but privately, they could pass intel and some support to Iran just as the US passed intel and support to Ukraine. Xi doesn’t want the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, because that’s the lifeline of China’s economy in oil coming from the Gulf. However, with the US assets being drawn into CENTCOMs AOR, they may hope the US gets stuck there. I don’t believe they’re anywhere near ready to make a move on Taiwan. But a lot of OSINT Bros will probably say otherwise in the next 48hrs.

Iran can retaliate asymmetrically, both directly and through proxies. If you are an American traveling abroad, I’d pay attention to the Department of State warnings for your country, maybe consider carefully attending events attended by lots of American tourists /travelers, and take a breather to see what happens next. Terror strikes in retaliation for conventional strikes, going by the Libyan case, often take months to years. So it’s unlikely anything would happen tomorrow but…check the DOS Travel Advisories.

Most US car gasoline these days comes from US and Canadian oils, not the Persian Gulf. Which is very different from when many of us grew up. However, many people are likely to rush out and “get gas”, possibly even some bread and milk too, which could spike prices over the next few days. Where oil stoppage out of the Strait of Hormuz will hit hardest is European and Chinese markets, with a hope they’ll apply leverage to the situation, and global oil prices which will have ripple on economic effects.

H/T to a commentator for bringing up concerns over the risk of radioactive spread due to attacking uranium enrichment facilities. Technically speaking, uranium that hasn’t yet gone kaboom at an atomic level in a nuclear detonation is crazy heavy. It doesn’t travel and disperse widely outside the explosion site. As most of these facilities are underground, and the contaminants are super heavy, the hope is that toxins remain buried and/or fall back to earth in the immediate vicinity. These aren’t going to be carried like an ash plume surrounding the globe from a volcano. Nor is there a constantly generating source of radiation, like a runaway reactor Chernobyl risk, unless the Iranian commercial nuclear reactors are targeted, which are in different locations than the suspected nuclear weapons labs. (And we’ve seen how hard it is to cause reactor meltdowns by even close-by artillery and bombings of Ukrainian nuclear sites by Russia.) Even the uraninium fluoride gas that is released is the alpha-particle variety, which is dangerous but doesn’t disperse far. (See source in first comment thread for risks of different scenarios.)

I know this isn’t great news to hear tonight, and it’s a lot worse for people outside the US who are going to have to deal the consequences moreso than those of us here in the US, and this post may not many nerves. But I’m trying to limit to what is known and likely vs. wild speculation while still addressing anxieties in a way I can.