Iran War 05 MAR Forecast Update

Phase I: Blue Airpower Conducts SEAD in Red Territory

Phase II-A: Blue Interdiction and Close Air Support to Uprisings & Separatist Movements

Phase II-B: Blue Airpower Decapitation Strikes on Red C2

Phase III: Red Counters with Regional Barrages

Phase IV: Blue Reallocates Airpower to Interception & Launcher Hunting

Phase V: Red Counters by Activating Regional Proxies

Phase VI: Blue Reallocates Airpower to Proxy Hunting

Phase VII: After Red’s Barrage and Proxy Capabilities are Exhausted Blue Close Air Support to Uprisings & Separatist Movements Until Emerging State Actor Conflict Dynamics Take Over

(and depicted dynamic hypotheses) Ordered from least likely to most likely.

1) A complete collapse of the regime under Phase VII attacks or even earlier decapitation strikes or calls for ‘surrender’ of the IRGC. Very unlikely. (See HOPED Slide)

2) Iran counter-punches exceed regional and US/Israeli interceptor capabilities, domestic appetite for another forever war and pressure on the Blue Forces (US and Israel) to disengage with the Iranian regime intact. Don’t think it’s probable. (See FEARED Slide)

3) The US and Israel coalition exhausts Iranian counter-punches and succeeds in sparking popular uprisings and ethnic insurgencies. These result in emerging-state actor dynamics that topple, or at least tangle, the Iranian regime, significantly reducing its power and projection capability for years to

come. Probable, if grim, scenario. (See ACTUAL 28 FEB Goal Slide)

4) The US and Israel coalition exhausts Iranian counter-punches but fails to spark popular uprisings or ethnic insurgencies after several months. This is a likely scenario.

5) The sides break off combat operations suddenly under the auspices of a ceasefire and negotiation. This is the most likely scenario, but only after the end of this week and since 02 MAR is now tied to the revised objective of reducing Iranian barrage capability. (See ACTUAL 02 MAR Revised Goals Slide)

Blue = US/Israeli coalition (incl France and GCC now)

Red = Iranian coaliation (including Hezbollah, Iraqi PMF, and Houthis)

The chart depicts the seven phases of conflict from a JADO perspective beginning with the black line “Start of War” and unfolding left to right in always the same phase-order. These are different ‘states’ in the system. Although presented linearly, think of them as evolving and subsuming one another, but useful for purposes of learning how this unfolds. The demarcation between phases marks a significant change in battle space operations while the behavior lines can represent a continuum of activity across more than one phase.

So the Suppress Enemey Air Defenses (SEAD) is both Phase I (the first significant activities), but the Blue allocation of airpower to SEAD sometimes goes past Phase I.

Both y-axis and x-xis are notional. Dynamic hypotheses are qualitative vs. numerical. The goal is to capture relative changes in notional levels anticipated by the logic of the CLD model than actual numbers. Y-axis is a notional allocation of Blue and Red JADO assets. Blue assets may be qualitative,but they can never exceed maximum available (see Reserves line). Red JADO has indepdenent maximums for barrages and proxy activities.

Also, the x-axis timeline is multi-phase: different phases may last only hours, others days, and still others weeks. Also these phase time units can change based on scenario depicted.

Each chart represents a particular “perspective” of a side. All charts in these batch are from the Blue perspective. So Hoped, Feared, or Actual are from the perspective of Blue combatants.

Pay attention to the units of time on the bottom, some scenarios (e.g. HOPED) represent a few days culminating in a week of activity. Others (ACTUAL on Regime Change) may represent many weeks of activity.

Likewise the units of time for each phase may also change, what takes only a few hours to pass through multiple phases in the HOPED has proven to take days and heading into weeks on the ACTUAL.

Pay attention to where air superiority is gained over Iranian airspace. That’s the blue line. Its movement left to right is a key indicator of the freedom US and Israeli forces have to operate uncontested in Iranian airspace. If you do not see a blue line on the slide, that is not an accident; it means air superiority is never gained in that scenario.

Also pay attention to the Blue Airpower reserves line. This indicates JADO assets (not just strictly aircraft) that are being held back and available for other missions. Ideally, as a combat commander, you want some of your forces in reserve at all time, but not too much waiting around that you’re missing opportunities. If your reserves go to zero, that’s a very bad sign in that everything you have is allocated.