20 Mar 2026

Deep-Dive on Risk of Iranian Terrorism in the US

Posted in InfoMullets, Iran War of 2026 By Timothy Clancy On March 20, 2026

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TLDRUpFront: Since the 2020 assassination of Gen Soleimani, Iran has attempted 69 intelligence activities ranging from assassination to survellaince and threats. These mainly targeted dissidents and government officials – but not average Americans. And none of them caused harm in the US. During the same period in Israel, Iraq, and Syria – Iran or Iranian backed proxies committed dozens of irregular warfare attacks killing ~50 US citizens and 4 US service members or military contractors while wounding over 180 US service members or military contractors. But overall the threat to Americans remains low, despite new Iranian warnings of intent to target tourist locations, parks, and beaches.

All Iranian External Operations Globally 1979- March 20 2026

FULL Context in The Back:
One of the most common questions I get since the war started is “what is the risk of terrorism in the US.” And I’ve routinely tried to downplay the risk by sort of broad-stroking an answer of “Iran routinely conducts terrorist and foreign intelligence operations in the US – but those tend to target government officials and dissidents eschewing public mass killing or direct infrastructure attacks.” I have the time to go into a bit of a deeper dive on that.

Unless you’re an American citizen, service member, or military contractor living or deployed in Israel, Iraq, or Syria; there is virtually no chance you will be involved in an Iranian or Iranian proxy terrorist act if you aren’t an Iranian dissent or you haven’t directly ordered, or been involved, in the death of a key Iranian political or military leader.

And if you’re an American citizen, service member, or military contractor living or deployed in Israel, Iraq or Syria the risk breakdown is as follows. If in Israel, the highest risk window was during the 7 OCT Hamas invasion of Israel (when all 48 American citizens killed in Israel were killed and another 12 kidnapped). In Syria and Iraq, almost all attacks are against US military and military contractors by Iran or Iranian backed proxies which have killed two and wounded over 180. I have found two instances of American citizens, both in Iraq, targeted for assassination. This isn’t to condone killing of US service members or military contractors in Iraq or Syria; but that these are in the context of wartime or conflict operations. The risk is known and countermeasures are being taken.

But if you are an Iranian dissident or directly ordered or been directly involved in the death of a key Iranian political or military leader (and you know who you are) then your risk goes up. Even in the United States. Just not by much.

Using an interactive tracker of Iranian external operations, I identified 69 incidents between 2020 – 2024 connected to Iranian terrorist attempts against United States interest. The list includes a range of activities including arson, assassination, attack, attack attempts, bombing, cyber, drone/rocket attack, kidnapping, recruitment, surveillance, and threats. Not that Iran has attempted all those things in the US – it’s a global interactive tracker going back to 1979.

But if you drop that list down to violent actions you don’t find any arson, bombings, drone/rockets – just assassination and kidnapping attempts. The list drops to 59 and sometimes there’s multiple entries for one case. Take the dissident category. For example, Amir Abbas Fakhravar is a well-known and vocal Iranian dissident who founded the National Iranian Congress, a assembly of students and proto-government in exile in 2013. They advocate for US backed military regime change in Iran. Amir has been targeted for assassination twice (2021 and 2024), a kidnapping plot, surveillance, and his sister was threatened in Germany. That’s five out of 59 incidents. There’s also two incidents for the plot, and physical attempt, of assassinating Salman Rushdie in 2022. Roya Hakakian, an Iranian-American Jewish poet was targeted for her collaboration with Masih Alinejad who was the producer at Voice of America Persian News Network and a journalist, author, and political activist for women’s interests in Iran and around the world.

Then there’s the targets who directly ordered or have been directly involved in the death of a key Iranian political or military leader. These targets include President Trump, who during the 2024 Presidential campaign was targeted with a plot that got far enough along the Secret Service secretly had him fly on a second plane while letting his campaign staff fly on Trump’s name brand plane. The staff were not amused when they found out. John Bolton, President Trump’s national security advisor in his first term, was also targeted. Both of them, and several others in this category, were key figures in orchestrating the assassination of General Qasam Soleimani. Soleimani led the Iranian QODS which is a Special Forces semi-autonomous unit of the IRGC. Soleimani was personally responsible for Iran’s push to become a regional hegemon exerting influence from Afghanistan through Lebanon including Syria, Iraq, and Yemen encircling the GCC until his death by US drone strike in 2020. Thankfully we are not facing Soleimani in the current war or we’d be faring much worse. It was the death of Soleimani in January 2020 that is the date I chose to begin this search from – as there was a wave of retaliation efforts spawning from it as QODS tried to avenge the death of their commander.

But that’s pretty much it. Dissidents and government officials. This is perhaps the biggest misunderstanding of terrorism in general, or Iranian terrorism in specific. People watch TV or even read about terrorism in the news and they assume every terrorist is equally capable, or interested, in committing every terrorist act. And because of the heuristic effect, we anchor our risk perception on the scary – even if less likely. Large scale public mass killings or catastrophic infrastructure attacks.

But that’s not Iran’s modus operandi. And I’m not even saying “Iran isn’t trying.” QODS is both a foreign intelligence service and the chief actor in orchestrating Iran’s foreign terrorist efforts. Browsing the database is fascinating to see how many and how frequently the Iranian QODS efforts are in the US. In addition to ‘terrorism’ of kidnapping and murder – they also frequently try to turn recruit agents; often US military personnel or government official, hoping to get classified materials or access to technology. Even the methods they use run the gamut. In Israel, Syria, and Iraq – the QODS coordinates most actions against the US via Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas or the Iraqi PMF. Drones, rockets, bombers – all risks.

But Iranian operations in the US look less like the irregular warfare of their middle east militias and more like Cold War spy vs. spy games the US and USSR used to play. Iranian clandestine intelligence officer operate under cover in the US recruiting intermediaries and proxies to achieve their goals. These could be sympathetic Iranians or those coerced with threats against families back home. But just as often include “American” criminal organizations like the Hells Angels. Notably absent – the use of illegal immigrants or migration routes across the southern border. It’s a common canard by border hawks, that Iran could use the porous southern border. Only problem is there’s not much evidence of it, and lots of evidence of Iran preferring the far more comfortable and quicker pathway of simply using a cover identity and infiltrating the US on commercial flights or other means. Iran does have a presence in Latin and South America both directly and through its proxies in Hezbollah. But these operations are usually more focused on fundraising and illicit trade – not human smuggling or terrorism.

Because Iran is not conducting hasty operations in the US looking to go out in a blaze of glory. Iran will spend months or years infiltrating key personnel and creating the right cover stories to create conditions for even the limited kidnapping and assassination plots we have discovered. They aren’t going to bum rush a battalion of green headband wearing human-wave troops to take out a shipping port or critical infrastructure with a bunch of suicide bomb vests (both scenarios I’ve seen circulating in the RUMINT and OSINT BRO sphere.) Nor are they likely to being making public mass killings in the US, even though as I write this Iran’s (new) military spokesman General Abolfazl Shekarchi warned of Iran’s intent to expand targets on “parks, recreational areas and tourist destinations” worldwide. It’s just not that easy for Iranian operatives to infiltrate the US and when they do, we’re usually pretty good at detecting them and countering them.

So that’s why I’ve been downplaying the threat of Iranian terrorism even with the war in Iran. However – one big caveat is a lot of the skilled personnel with deep experience in counter intelligence and counter terrorism against Iranian operations in the US are now gone from Federal service. Those who weren’t fired or forced out under DOGE were often reassigned from counter terrorism portfolios to immigration enforcement portfolios.

It’s not clear yet what impact this has had. One problem of counter terrorism and counter intelligence is you don’t realize you missed something entirely until it’s too late. But even if there is increased activity we’re not catching (thanks Musk!) – it’s more likely that activity is focused on assassination attempts against dissidents and military or government officials who have killed senior Iranian leadership. President Trump is obviously the top of this list, first for killing Soleimani and second for being associated with the assassination strike of Israel that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei in the opening hours of the war.

But if you’re not a dissident or someone associated with killing Iranian leaders – and you aren’t living in Israel, Iraq, or Syria you’re just not really at much of any risk. And of course, American Jews face more risk for being targeted on account of their religion, though generally these days that risk comes from ISIS and Great White Replacement Terror contagions more than it does Iranian operations. (Though that may change after the Hamas v. Israel war, 12 Day War, and the 2026 War with Iran.)

You’re actually at greater risk being an Iranian immigrant and targeted unjustly by President Trump’s immigration efforts. After the 12-Day War ICE surged targeting of Iranian immigrants, arresting over 100 most of whom had neither committed nor been convicted of a violent crime. And in the ceasefire agreement of the 12-Day war President ‘Art of the Deal’ Trump made-a-deal-with-Iran to deport up to 400 Iranian nationals out of the US and back to Iran. Many of which were actually dissidents of the Islamic Republic and under special vulnerability even before the January Uprisings or the Iran War that started in late February.

And if that wasn’t depressing enough, one of the most at risk groups anytime anything goes wrong in the Middle East or with Islam are Sikh. Which is a stunning indictment of the education system because Sikh are neither from the Middle East nor Islamic. Sikhism is a religion founded in India in the 15^th Century and represents a separatist movement within India. But their distinctive turbans often make them targets for those with an IQ south of a Shahed 171 drone who think anyone wearing a turban is a Muslim and any Muslim is a member of a terrorist cult. A Canadian Sikh was killed just days ago on in a daytime attack when a passing truck shot at him. Though the police are still investigating the crime, the timing with the Iran conflict is suspicious.

But for other Americans there’s way more risk, even low as it is, of being caught up in a public mass killing by a domestic shooter. The uncomfortable reality is there’s probably more risk to Iranian Americans being targeted for violence, despite being raised here by parents of those who fled the Revolution of 1979, by Americans who are lashing out in affective violence.

And as always, buckle your seat belt, keep off ladders and stay away from pools.

Sources

Original Post on FB on 19 MAR 2026.

Cool interactive dataset of Iranian External Operations Globally from 1979-2026. The settings I used to calculate 69 incidents are Plots & Attacks (All), Counter Terrorism Actions (none), Finance & Logistics (none), Country United States, Perpetrator (All), Target (All). Note that even with these settings the data set seems to pull in legal actions related to Plots & Attacks as well as those overseas. It does not seem to track irregular warfare attacks such as those in Israel, Iraq, and Syria (see next entry for that list.)

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/iranexternalops/

Lawfare Podcast on threat of Iranian Retaliation in US