Author Archive
22 Aug 2022
Car bomb assassination kills Putin supporter outside of Moscow
TLDRUpFront: A car bomb outside Moscow killed Darya Dugina, an influential ultra-nationalist ideologue and Putin supporter. Russia is blaming Ukrainian special forces for the attack but it is too early to know much. It's possible that the attack targeted Darya, or her father Aleksandr, both of whom were using the vehicle just prior to the
17 Mar 2022
HR6869 “Privateering” Bill is the White Claws of Legislative Response for Russo-Ukraine War
TLDRUpFront: HR6869 seeking to authorize Letters of Marque to seize Russian oligarch assets is proposed by an attention-seeking legislative Cartman, functionally ineffective, Constitutionally prohibited, and beyond that not a good idea. Other than that how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?
16 Mar 2022
Mid-Game Part2: Mid-Game Strategies
TLDRUpFront: The strategies for conventional attacks on large cities are not the same as in the 20th Century when bypassing, encircling & besieging or direct assault were the order of the day. Now, adopting a belts strategy and Grozny Rules with a goal of turning population centers into feral cities may be the strategy of Russia
16 Mar 2022
Mid-Game Part 1: Understanding the Phases of War using Go
TLDRUpFront: Part 1 of 3 of the mid-game assessment likens the Ukraine battlespace to a game of Go beginning the mid-game, including analysis of Russian and Ukrainian material losses and total force investment by Russia into the current conflict.
01 Mar 2022
Russo-Ukranian War Day 6: Memento Mori
TLDRUpFront: Logistics failures halt advance towards capital even as Russia warns Kyiv residents to flee. Grozny Rules for Kharkiv and Chernihiv in the north and continued expansion in the Crimean breakout, surrounding Maripoul.
28 Feb 2022
The Russian invasion looks nothing like it should. Why? And what happens next?
TLDRUpFront: Comparing doctrine to results Russia's invasion of Ukraine is going badly so far. Whether because of incompetence, institutional sycophancy, or too-clever strategy: Putin has miscalculated. The invasion of Ukraine may go down as the largest strategic military blunder since the Iraq Invasion of 2003 – even if he makes territorial gains in the Donbas
26 Feb 2022
Russo-Ukraine War Day 3: Ukrainian Success Risks Escalation to ‘Grozny Rules’
TLDRUpFront: Ukraine is holding its own as the Russian military continues to struggle. But President Putin appears ready to unleash "Grozny Rules": a systemic approach of targeting dense populated areas with conventional and unconventional attacks. Used in Aleppo, Syria, and Grozny, Chechnya the goal is to crush resistance from a standoff range without having to
25 Feb 2022
Russo-Ukrainian War Day 2: Not the Invasion Putin Planned
TLDRUpFront: First 48hrs of shock & awe failed to deliver a knock-out blow to Ukrainian defenders, allowing them to slow Russian advances, inflict losses, and set up defensive positions in key cities. Russia will need to grind out advances in the north. However, if Putin’s goal is gaining a land-strip in the south – and
21 Feb 2022
Putin Cards on the Table for Invading Ukraine
TLDRUpFront: Over the course of a single day President Putin of Russia officiated a "discussion" of Russian national security advisors all advising him to do what he already wanted: recognize separatist republics of Donatesk and Luhansk as independent sovereign states under threat of genocide from Ukraine. By the end of the day he had set the
18 Feb 2022
Putin Plays his Cards for Invasion
TLDRUpFront: Putin has four cards to play on the table creating a rhetorical pretext for invasion. Since the logistics are already in place - all that's left to do is watch for these four cards.