Author Archive

Ceasefire & Hostage Exchange in Hamas v. Israel War: Analysis

TLDRUpFront: Talks between Hamas, Israel, and the US facilitated by Qatar and Egypt resulted in a deal that will exchange ~50 Israeli hostages held by Hamas for 150 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel and a 4-day ceasefire. Designed as a ratcheting mechanism, if this works, there are opportunities to continue ratchets of additional exchanges and

Dynamics of Radicalization, Extremism & future of AI with Simulations – Guest Discussion at UiB MINDS

Nearly two-hour discussion with graduate students at the University of Bergin (UiB) Masters in System Dynamics Society (MINDS) ranging across violent radicalization; terror contagion hypothesis; and the Hamas v. Israel war. Also discussed  were system dynamics methods as well as possible future roles for AI/AGI in simulations and society.

Science of Peace & War: Guest Appearance on Steve Keen & Friends YouTube LiveStream

Link to 2hour live-stream YouTube. Click on the image or the URL. Topics include recent research on violent radicalization and commentary on the Hamas v. Israel conflict. URL:  

Domino Effect

TLDRUpFront: Trump destroys everything he touches, and he's had the GOP in a bear hug for years. Now, with his business under a death sentence, key insiders pleading guilty and agreeing to cooperate with 2020 election interference cases, even Trump's once-allies in the House GOP face death threats from the MAGA community they once embraced. 

MegaMullet: Dynamics of Atrocity Scripts in Conflict

TLDRUpFront: A MegaMullet addressing the flood of atrocity scripts on social media: What are the different kinds of scripts used in local and foreign narratives? Why are we seeing more now? Why would actors share them? What do they hope to gain? What are best practices for navigating these materials safely?

MegaMullet: Hamas v. Israel War

TLDRUpFront: Hamas can start a war, and Israel can win the war, but neither can win the peace. Failing to get to the roots of mutually held grievances by Palestinians and Israelis is just pulling weeds. Permanent dismantling of Hamas and the removal of Netanyahu’s government, and repudiation of his governing style, are required to

Can an AI LLM write a 3k word scientific paper? What about a 100k-200k word book?

TLDRUpFront: Why current AI LLMs may be able to write a 3k-word scientific paper, but not a 100k-word scientific book or a 220k-word gaming rulebook exposes how LLM memory, token sizes, hallucination, and hard and soft limits create limits-to-growth on both the size and accuracy of a given LLM project.

Niger Coup risks Regional War

TLDRUpFront: Continuing instability from ISIS & AQ Sahel conflicts and a string of emerging military dictatorships has put the 15-country ECOWAS bloc on a path for a regional war. 'Suspended' ECOWAS members, plus Wagnar are backing Niger's coup, while 'current' members, plus Chad are considering military intervention to restore the former government, likely supported in

What’s a better use of time than a six-month pause on AI Research?

TLDRUpFront: Much has been made about the signatories of a letter requesting the government to enforce a six-month ban on AI Research. But there is a better use we could put that six months to for Hinton, Yadowsky, Pachniewski, and all the other AGI Doomers.

All Models Hallucinate, Some are Useful

TLDRUpFront: George Box's quote on the problems, and utility of models, applies as much to AI as anything else since he said it.