07 Aug 2023
Niger Coup risks Regional War
TLDRUpFront: Continuing instability from ISIS & AQ Sahel conflicts and a string of emerging military dictatorships has put the 15-country ECOWAS bloc on a path for a regional war. 'Suspended' ECOWAS members, plus Wagnar are backing Niger's coup, while 'current' members, plus Chad are considering military intervention to restore the former government, likely supported in
27 Aug 2022
Frequently Attacked Zaporizhzhia NPP FAQ
TLDRUpFront: Renewed fighting at Zaporizhzhia raises concerns of nuclear incident with global ramifications. Answering FAQ suggests that the worst-case mental model should be Fukushima versus Chernobyl and the risks do not raise to the level to justify US or NATO military intervention.
22 Aug 2022
Car bomb assassination kills Putin supporter outside of Moscow
TLDRUpFront: A car bomb outside Moscow killed Darya Dugina, an influential ultra-nationalist ideologue and Putin supporter. Russia is blaming Ukrainian special forces for the attack but it is too early to know much. It's possible that the attack targeted Darya, or her father Aleksandr, both of whom were using the vehicle just prior to the
09 Aug 2022
FBI Raid on Trump’s Residence Explained
TLDRUpFront: The FBI search on former President Trump's residence last night doesn't appear connected to subverting & obstructing the 2020 election or inciting an insurrection. Mishandling of Presidential records, including possible classified documents, may end up creating an "Al Capone" outcome for President Trump where. Beware the librarians!
08 Jul 2022
Shinzo Abe Assassinated in Japan
TLDRUPFront: A quick backgrounder on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who was assassinated on a campaign stop in Japan Friday. FullContextInTheBack: At about noon local time Friday in Japan the former Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, was shot twice by what authorities are calling a home-made shotgun by a 41-year-old former member of
04 Jul 2022
Analysis of Contingencies in Russia v. Ukraine & Far-Future Forecasts
TLDRUpFront: If Scenario #1 is most likely forecast through summer and fall – what contingencies could shift that forecast and another scenario? What is on the horizon in the long term for Russia and Ukraine?
04 Jul 2022
Manifesto of a Radical Moderate
TLDRUpFront: For 20 years, I have identified as a Radical Moderate. Here is a draft of what that means to me. I release it imperfectly, not as a final product but as the beginning of a wider dialogue on what it means to be a Radical Moderate and what changes are needed to form a
04 Jul 2022
Violence in America (2022 Edition)
TLDRUpFront: The 2022 update on the historical patterns and current dynamics of violence in the United States. No policy arguments. Only data: 22 charts on 13 topics from credible sources. Includes notes on methods and sources. Bookmark the post and share the post, or individual charts from it, as may be useful in the coming
03 Jul 2022
Reversion to a Mean Strategy: System Memories & Latent Constraints in Russia’s War on Ukraine
TLDRUpFront: A deeper dive into strategies and doctrines of Russia's invasion of Ukraine through a lense of complex systems analysis to help explain what has happened to now, and what is likely to happen in the future.
30 Jun 2022
Russia’s Slow Cook Offensive
TLDRUpFront: A MegaMullet review of Russia Ukrainian war from invasion through this week. Includes review of mid-game forecasts made in March and how the “most likely” Scenario #1 is very close to where we are today.