Foreign Affairs Archive
TLDRUpFront: Talks between Hamas, Israel, and the US facilitated by Qatar and Egypt resulted in a deal that will exchange ~50 Israeli hostages held by Hamas for 150 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel and a 4-day ceasefire. Designed as a ratcheting mechanism, if this works, there are opportunities to continue ratchets of additional exchanges and
Nearly two-hour discussion with graduate students at the University of Bergin (UiB) Masters in System Dynamics Society (MINDS) ranging across violent radicalization; terror contagion hypothesis; and the Hamas v. Israel war. Also discussed were system dynamics methods as well as possible future roles for AI/AGI in simulations and society.
Link to 2hour live-stream YouTube. Click on the image or the URL. Topics include recent research on violent radicalization and commentary on the Hamas v. Israel conflict. URL: https://youtu.be/mxIRbxW4MZg?t=826
TLDRUpFront: A MegaMullet addressing the flood of atrocity scripts on social media: What are the different kinds of scripts used in local and foreign narratives? Why are we seeing more now? Why would actors share them? What do they hope to gain? What are best practices for navigating these materials safely?
TLDRUpFront: Hamas can start a war, and Israel can win the war, but neither can win the peace. Failing to get to the roots of mutually held grievances by Palestinians and Israelis is just pulling weeds. Permanent dismantling of Hamas and the removal of Netanyahu’s government, and repudiation of his governing style, are required to
TLDRUpFront: AI, Drones, and even AI Drone Swarms could be considered like the introduction of IEDs into modern battlefields, definitely have an impact at a moment in time, but any 'game change' influence they have in the moment is mitigated by adaptation counter-adaptation dynamics between competitors over time.
Link to 2hour live-stream YouTube. Click on the image or the URL. Topics include general discussion on simulating conflict and how to use simulations for analysis and policy. URL: https://youtu.be/-qSUvQupZck?t=740
45 minute podcast on appearance on the Jim Rutt show describing current conditions and five Mid-Game scenarios for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Click on link or image below. URL: https://jimruttshow.blubrry.net/currents-timothy-clancy/
TLDRUpFront: Renewed fighting at Zaporizhzhia raises concerns of nuclear incident with global ramifications. Answering FAQ suggests that the worst-case mental model should be Fukushima versus Chernobyl and the risks do not raise to the level to justify US or NATO military intervention.
TLDRUpFront: A car bomb outside Moscow killed Darya Dugina, an influential ultra-nationalist ideologue and Putin supporter. Russia is blaming Ukrainian special forces for the attack but it is too early to know much. It's possible that the attack targeted Darya, or her father Aleksandr, both of whom were using the vehicle just prior to the