Foreign Affairs Archive
22 Nov 2023
Ceasefire & Hostage Exchange in Hamas v. Israel War: Analysis
TLDRUpFront: Talks between Hamas, Israel, and the US facilitated by Qatar and Egypt resulted in a deal that will exchange ~50 Israeli hostages held by Hamas for 150 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel and a 4-day ceasefire. Designed as a ratcheting mechanism, if this works, there are opportunities to continue ratchets of additional exchanges and
06 Nov 2023
Dynamics of Radicalization, Extremism & future of AI with Simulations – Guest Discussion at UiB MINDS
Nearly two-hour discussion with graduate students at the University of Bergin (UiB) Masters in System Dynamics Society (MINDS) ranging across violent radicalization; terror contagion hypothesis; and the Hamas v. Israel war. Also discussed were system dynamics methods as well as possible future roles for AI/AGI in simulations and society.
21 Oct 2023
Science of Peace & War: Guest Appearance on Steve Keen & Friends YouTube LiveStream
Link to 2hour live-stream YouTube. Click on the image or the URL. Topics include recent research on violent radicalization and commentary on the Hamas v. Israel conflict. URL: https://youtu.be/mxIRbxW4MZg?t=826
17 Oct 2023
MegaMullet: Dynamics of Atrocity Scripts in Conflict
TLDRUpFront: A MegaMullet addressing the flood of atrocity scripts on social media: What are the different kinds of scripts used in local and foreign narratives? Why are we seeing more now? Why would actors share them? What do they hope to gain? What are best practices for navigating these materials safely?
10 Oct 2023
MegaMullet: Hamas v. Israel War
TLDRUpFront: Hamas can start a war, and Israel can win the war, but neither can win the peace. Failing to get to the roots of mutually held grievances by Palestinians and Israelis is just pulling weeds. Permanent dismantling of Hamas and the removal of Netanyahu’s government, and repudiation of his governing style, are required to
17 Sep 2023
Exploring “Game-Changer” Fallacies in AI, Drones, and AI Drone Swarms through Ukrainian’s “Cardboard Drone” Attack
TLDRUpFront: AI, Drones, and even AI Drone Swarms could be considered like the introduction of IEDs into modern battlefields, definitely have an impact at a moment in time, but any 'game change' influence they have in the moment is mitigated by adaptation counter-adaptation dynamics between competitors over time.
10 Jun 2023
Conflict Simulations & Policy Analysis: Guest Appearance on Steve Keen & Friends YouTube LiveStream
Link to 2hour live-stream YouTube. Click on the image or the URL. Topics include general discussion on simulating conflict and how to use simulations for analysis and policy. URL: https://youtu.be/-qSUvQupZck?t=740
22 Mar 2023
Russia’s Mid-Game: Guest Appearance on the Jim Rutt Podcast
45 minute podcast on appearance on the Jim Rutt show describing current conditions and five Mid-Game scenarios for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Click on link or image below. URL: https://jimruttshow.blubrry.net/currents-timothy-clancy/
27 Aug 2022
Frequently Attacked Zaporizhzhia NPP FAQ
TLDRUpFront: Renewed fighting at Zaporizhzhia raises concerns of nuclear incident with global ramifications. Answering FAQ suggests that the worst-case mental model should be Fukushima versus Chernobyl and the risks do not raise to the level to justify US or NATO military intervention.
22 Aug 2022
Car bomb assassination kills Putin supporter outside of Moscow
TLDRUpFront: A car bomb outside Moscow killed Darya Dugina, an influential ultra-nationalist ideologue and Putin supporter. Russia is blaming Ukrainian special forces for the attack but it is too early to know much. It's possible that the attack targeted Darya, or her father Aleksandr, both of whom were using the vehicle just prior to the