From the 12 Day War to the Iran War Archive
19 Feb 2026
Iranian Protests Resume Right on Time
TLDRUpFront: Per my previous email, Iranians have taken advantage of the timing function of Shia mourning rites to call for nationwide strikes and voice protest against the Iranian regime. And unlike during the January uprisings, US military assets are now in the region, with more arriving soon, just as the timing cycles of the Trump
26 Jan 2026
Lincoln Misses the Play & Trump on the Battle Ropes
TLDRUpFront: Following up on previous analysis the USS Abraham Lincoln is now located at the intersection of the offensive and defensive OODA loops discussed before. That means it is well situated where it needed to be 3 weeks ago in order to both support the Iranian uprisings with a no-fly zone or offensive strikes against
16 Jan 2026
Iranian Protests End without US Intervention or Support
TLDRUpFront: Unfortunately, barring some major change tonight or over the weekend, the Iranian uprisings are over for now. But they may come back in 40 days.
14 Jan 2026
MegaMullet: OODA Loops and OODA Dupes
TLDRUPFront: As violence continues to remain at high levels in Iran, US military forces are poorly positioned to assist. This despite President Trump's claim that 'help is on the way.'
11 Jan 2026
Vibe Statecrafting in Syria, Iran, and Venezuela
TLDRUpFront:A few TLDR thoughts up front on the three international crises and fuller context on Venezuela tomorrow. As both Syria and Iran have entered dangerous periods of instability, Venezuela is chugging along on a status quo.
10 Dec 2025
Why seizing Venezuelan tankers tells us more about Iran than Venezuela
TLDRUPFront: A deep-dive analysis on the history and evolution of Iranian sanctions, why they are hitting exceptionally hard right now, and what that has to do with the US seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker bound for Iran.
23 Jun 2025
Assessing Likelihood of Uprisings in Iran and Iranian Sleeper Cells in the United States
TLDRUpFront: Assessing conflict escalation scenarios, risks of dirty bomb and/or sleeper cell attacks in the US, likelihood of uprisings against the Iranian regime, and risk of Iranian cyber attacks.
21 Jun 2025
Nine Things to Know as US enters Israeli-Iran Conflict by Bombing Nuclear Weapons Sites
TLDRUpFront: Traveling so not in a position to offer much other than a few things to address what are likely to be some spiking anxieties tonight. I won't delve into a detailed military analysis of the strikes themselves; this isn't my area of expertise and we don't know much. Nor analyze politics, because that will