Russo-Ukrainian War 2022 to Current Archive
27 Aug 2022
Frequently Attacked Zaporizhzhia NPP FAQ
TLDRUpFront: Renewed fighting at Zaporizhzhia raises concerns of nuclear incident with global ramifications. Answering FAQ suggests that the worst-case mental model should be Fukushima versus Chernobyl and the risks do not raise to the level to justify US or NATO military intervention.
22 Aug 2022
Car bomb assassination kills Putin supporter outside of Moscow
TLDRUpFront: A car bomb outside Moscow killed Darya Dugina, an influential ultra-nationalist ideologue and Putin supporter. Russia is blaming Ukrainian special forces for the attack but it is too early to know much. It's possible that the attack targeted Darya, or her father Aleksandr, both of whom were using the vehicle just prior to the
04 Jul 2022
Analysis of Contingencies in Russia v. Ukraine & Far-Future Forecasts
TLDRUpFront: If Scenario #1 is most likely forecast through summer and fall – what contingencies could shift that forecast and another scenario? What is on the horizon in the long term for Russia and Ukraine?
03 Jul 2022
Reversion to a Mean Strategy: System Memories & Latent Constraints in Russia’s War on Ukraine
TLDRUpFront: A deeper dive into strategies and doctrines of Russia's invasion of Ukraine through a lense of complex systems analysis to help explain what has happened to now, and what is likely to happen in the future.
30 Jun 2022
Russia’s Slow Cook Offensive
TLDRUpFront: A MegaMullet review of Russia Ukrainian war from invasion through this week. Includes review of mid-game forecasts made in March and how the “most likely” Scenario #1 is very close to where we are today.
17 Mar 2022
HR6869 “Privateering” Bill is the White Claws of Legislative Response for Russo-Ukraine War
TLDRUpFront: HR6869 seeking to authorize Letters of Marque to seize Russian oligarch assets is proposed by an attention-seeking legislative Cartman, functionally ineffective, Constitutionally prohibited, and beyond that not a good idea. Other than that how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?
16 Mar 2022
Mid-Game Part 3: Five Scenarios through Mid-May
TLDRUpFront: Part 3 of 3 of the mid-game assessment forecasts five scenarios for the Russian Ukraine war over the next few weeks through mid-May, rated most likely to least likely.
16 Mar 2022
Mid-Game Part2: Mid-Game Strategies
TLDRUpFront: The strategies for conventional attacks on large cities are not the same as in the 20th Century when bypassing, encircling & besieging or direct assault were the order of the day. Now, adopting a belts strategy and Grozny Rules with a goal of turning population centers into feral cities may be the strategy of Russia
16 Mar 2022
Mid-Game Part 1: Understanding the Phases of War using Go
TLDRUpFront: Part 1 of 3 of the mid-game assessment likens the Ukraine battlespace to a game of Go beginning the mid-game, including analysis of Russian and Ukrainian material losses and total force investment by Russia into the current conflict.
10 Mar 2022
March 10th Russia’s Belts of Kyiv Strategy
TLDRUpFront: Western narratives of an imminent military collapse are misleading as Russia demonstrates the continued ability to maneuver large, combined-arms forces. These are taking up “belts” position around Kyiv, cutting off northern cities, and continuing to steady advances on multiple fronts expanding the Russia-Crimea land corridor.