Russo-Ukrainian War 2022 to Current Archive

Exploring “Game-Changer” Fallacies in AI, Drones, and AI Drone Swarms through Ukrainian’s “Cardboard Drone” Attack

TLDRUpFront: AI, Drones, and even AI Drone Swarms could be considered like the introduction of IEDs into modern battlefields, definitely have an impact at a moment in time, but any 'game change' influence they have in the moment is mitigated by adaptation counter-adaptation dynamics between competitors over time.

Russia’s Mid-Game: Guest Appearance on the Jim Rutt Podcast

45 minute podcast on appearance on the Jim Rutt show describing current conditions and five Mid-Game scenarios for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Click on link or image below.   URL: https://jimruttshow.blubrry.net/currents-timothy-clancy/

Frequently Attacked Zaporizhzhia NPP FAQ

TLDRUpFront: Renewed fighting at Zaporizhzhia raises concerns of nuclear incident with global ramifications. Answering FAQ suggests that the worst-case mental model should be Fukushima versus Chernobyl and the risks do not raise to the level to justify US or NATO military intervention.

Car bomb assassination kills Putin supporter outside of Moscow

TLDRUpFront: A car bomb outside Moscow killed Darya Dugina, an influential ultra-nationalist ideologue and Putin supporter. Russia is blaming Ukrainian special forces for the attack but it is too early to know much. It's possible that the attack targeted Darya, or her father Aleksandr, both of whom were using the vehicle just prior to the

Analysis of Contingencies in Russia v. Ukraine & Far-Future Forecasts

TLDRUpFront: If Scenario #1 is most likely forecast through summer and fall – what contingencies could shift that forecast and another scenario? What is on the horizon in the long term for Russia and Ukraine?

Reversion to a Mean Strategy: System Memories & Latent Constraints in Russia’s War on Ukraine

TLDRUpFront: A deeper dive into strategies and doctrines of Russia's invasion of Ukraine through a lense of complex systems analysis to help explain what has happened to now, and what is likely to happen in the future. 

Russia’s Slow Cook Offensive 

TLDRUpFront: A MegaMullet review of Russia Ukrainian war from invasion through this week. Includes review of mid-game forecasts made in March and how the “most likely” Scenario #1 is very close to where we are today.

HR6869 “Privateering” Bill is the White Claws of Legislative Response for Russo-Ukraine War

TLDRUpFront: HR6869 seeking to authorize Letters of Marque to seize Russian oligarch assets is proposed by an attention-seeking legislative Cartman, functionally ineffective, Constitutionally prohibited, and beyond that not a good idea. Other than that how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?

Mid-Game Part 3: Five Scenarios through Mid-May

TLDRUpFront: Part 3 of 3 of the mid-game assessment forecasts five scenarios for the Russian Ukraine war over the next few weeks through mid-May, rated most likely to least likely.

Mid-Game Part2: Mid-Game Strategies

TLDRUpFront: The strategies for conventional attacks on large cities are not the same as in the 20th Century when bypassing, encircling & besieging or direct assault were the order of the day. Now, adopting a belts strategy and Grozny Rules with a goal of turning population centers into feral cities may be the strategy of Russia