TLDR UpFront: Well-dressed’ Turkish security guards abused diplomatic immunity to attack Armenian and Kurdish protestors demonstrating outside the White House during President Erdogan’s visit. Two arrests have been made, and 12 were injured, including a DC police officer. This attack occurs within the context of increased tension in Turkey itself over a disputed Constitutional referendum
TLDR Upfront: Contrary to doomsayer predictions of a new WWI between Russia and Turkey based on the assassination of an envoy in Ankara yesterday, pretty much the exact opposite happened. The beginnings of a Red Wedding scenario, a framework of cooperation between Russia, Turkey and Iran - excluding the US, NATO and the United Nations
TLDR Upfront: Despite strategic realignment an escalating pattern of instability within Turkey puts it on a dangerous path with an uncertain immediate future.
TLDR Upfront: Aside from obvious short-term civil and human rights concerns arising from Erdogan's purge, a medium-term risk looms large. Turkey's permanent exit off the pathway to European Union membership may signal an end to fifty-five year effort to integrate Turkey and the European mainland. Such a shift, especially if it included ejection from NATO