Insurgency Archive
16 Mar 2022
Mid-Game Part 3: Five Scenarios through Mid-May
TLDRUpFront: Part 3 of 3 of the mid-game assessment forecasts five scenarios for the Russian Ukraine war over the next few weeks through mid-May, rated most likely to least likely.
31 Mar 2020
InfoMullet: Ashes to Ashes (pt3 of 4)
TLDRUpFront: The third of a four-part series as the United States, and the world, begins tipping-over from COVID-19. As worries about pandemic related violence and instability increase the InfoMullet forecasts the next 12 months across six types of violence. Unlike the pandemic or the economy, our forecast of violence is positive with declining rates in
30 Mar 2020
InfoMullet: The Dictator’s Dilemma – Hong Kong Case Study
TLDRUpFront: Even as the wildfire of COVID19 rages we look ahead to what the world will look like after the first wave. Originally published in November, the Dictator's Dilemma uses the Hong Kong protests to illustrate a crucial dynamic: how small initial calls for reform over legitimate grievances can escalate into mass civil protests, violent street
31 Jan 2017
InfoMullet: Drawn & Quartered
TLDR Upfront: The battle against ISIS continues on two crucial fronts in Iraq & Syria as mirror images of one another. In Mosul, a coalition of forces have pushed ISIS back into only a half of the city but civilian casualties mount under an intensifying air campaign led by US warplanes. In Syria, ISIS
25 Nov 2015
InfoMullet: Battle of Five Armies PT II
TLDR Up Front: The Syrian government remains holding the most gains in the Aleppo battle, but a counter-offensive by the Al-Nusrah front aims to undermine those gains southwest of the city, while ISIS continues to try and contain the Syrian government's advance east of Aleppo to Kuweyenes air force base.
18 Nov 2015
InfoMullet: History of the Names of ISIS
TLDR Up Front: The Islamic State of Syria & Iraq (ISIS, ISIL, Daesh) is just the latest in a series of names for a salafist takfiri group, each representing a shift in their strategy and geographic perspective, as well as efforts by opponents to portray them in a negative light (eg. Daesh); which have largely
22 Feb 2014
HistoricalMullet: Maidan Revolution topples Yanukovych Regime
TLDRUpFront: After bloody street battles attempts to suppress the Maidan Revolution with the military have failed - leading to the collapse of the regime, freeing of political prisoners, and growing instability across the country.