Iran War Archive
01 Mar 2026
Mega Mullet: Iran War Forecast & System Models
TLDRUpFront:A forecast and accompanying system pattern model of how the US-Iran war plays out. A scenario summary up front, followed by caveats, assumptions, the detailed phase forecast, and a final list of scenario outcomes and likelihoods at end. Remember, all models, and the forecasts derived from them, are wrong. Some are useful. This forecast is
19 Feb 2026
Iranian Protests Resume Right on Time
TLDRUpFront: Per my previous email, Iranians have taken advantage of the timing function of Shia mourning rites to call for nationwide strikes and voice protest against the Iranian regime. And unlike during the January uprisings, US military assets are now in the region, with more arriving soon, just as the timing cycles of the Trump
26 Jan 2026
Lincoln Misses the Play & Trump on the Battle Ropes
TLDRUpFront: Following up on previous analysis the USS Abraham Lincoln is now located at the intersection of the offensive and defensive OODA loops discussed before. That means it is well situated where it needed to be 3 weeks ago in order to both support the Iranian uprisings with a no-fly zone or offensive strikes against
21 Jun 2025
Nine Things to Know as US enters Israeli-Iran Conflict by Bombing Nuclear Weapons Sites
TLDRUpFront: Traveling so not in a position to offer much other than a few things to address what are likely to be some spiking anxieties tonight. I won't delve into a detailed military analysis of the strikes themselves; this isn't my area of expertise and we don't know much. Nor analyze politics, because that will