Iran Archive
01 Mar 2026
Mega Mullet: Iran War Forecast & System Models
TLDRUpFront:A forecast and accompanying system pattern model of how the US-Iran war plays out. A scenario summary up front, followed by caveats, assumptions, the detailed phase forecast, and a final list of scenario outcomes and likelihoods at end. Remember, all models, and the forecasts derived from them, are wrong. Some are useful. This forecast is
19 Feb 2026
Iranian Protests Resume Right on Time
TLDRUpFront: Per my previous email, Iranians have taken advantage of the timing function of Shia mourning rites to call for nationwide strikes and voice protest against the Iranian regime. And unlike during the January uprisings, US military assets are now in the region, with more arriving soon, just as the timing cycles of the Trump
26 Jan 2026
Lincoln Misses the Play & Trump on the Battle Ropes
TLDRUpFront: Following up on previous analysis the USS Abraham Lincoln is now located at the intersection of the offensive and defensive OODA loops discussed before. That means it is well situated where it needed to be 3 weeks ago in order to both support the Iranian uprisings with a no-fly zone or offensive strikes against
10 Dec 2025
Why seizing Venezuelan tankers tells us more about Iran than Venezuela
TLDRUPFront: A deep-dive analysis on the history and evolution of Iranian sanctions, why they are hitting exceptionally hard right now, and what that has to do with the US seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker bound for Iran.
21 Jun 2025
Nine Things to Know as US enters Israeli-Iran Conflict by Bombing Nuclear Weapons Sites
TLDRUpFront: Traveling so not in a position to offer much other than a few things to address what are likely to be some spiking anxieties tonight. I won't delve into a detailed military analysis of the strikes themselves; this isn't my area of expertise and we don't know much. Nor analyze politics, because that will
20 Jan 2020
InfoMullet: The New Young Street Escalates in Lebanon, Returns to Iraq, and Persists in Iran
TLDRUpFront: For several months now the InfoMullet has been tracking a wave of instability hitting countries lying south of 30 Degrees North that have large youth populations, systemic economic weakness, and rising distrust and disgust not just with a dictator or political party – but the entire system of governance itself. Today we review one
13 Jan 2020
InfoMullet: The Young Street Returns in Iran
TLDRUpFront: After a brutal November repression of protesters in the new "Young Street" in Iran left a 1,000 dead and over 25,000 wounded; December was a quieter month for the regime in Tehran. The 40th day mourning rites for the November deaths, falling on December 25th and 26th, were preemptively disrupted by security forces which
09 Jan 2020
InfoMullet: Coda to Act I & Intro to Act II in the Aftermath of Soleimani
TLDRUpFront: A week out now’s a good time to review what’s happened in the aftermath of the strike against Soleimani. In this post I walk through how erroneous mental-models caused so many to miss Iran’s de-escalation signals, what those signals were, and leveraging what we now know to make a forecast of what may happen
03 Jan 2020
InfoMullet: A Backgrounder on General Soleimani
TLDRUpFront: A quick backgrounder on General Soleimani, commander of Iranian’s special forces and cornerstone of Iranian foreign policy, killed by a US military strike last night outside the Baghdad Airport. Possessing once-in-a-generation capabilities crossing military strategy and diplomacy both across state and non-state actors. Removing him creates a question as hard to answer as asking
11 Feb 2018
InfoMullet: Casus Drone
TLDRUpFront: Israeli entered the Syrian conflict today after a series of escalations that began with an Iranian drone-flight into Israel. By the end of the day one Israel aircraft had been downed by anti-aircraft fire and over a dozen Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah positions in Syria had either been struck or involved in counter-attacks.
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