Iran Archive
20 Jan 2020
InfoMullet: The New Young Street Escalates in Lebanon, Returns to Iraq, and Persists in Iran

TLDRUpFront: For several months now the InfoMullet has been tracking a wave of instability hitting countries lying south of 30 Degrees North that have large youth populations, systemic economic weakness, and rising distrust and disgust not just with a dictator or political party – but the entire system of governance itself. Today we review one
13 Jan 2020
InfoMullet: The Young Street Returns in Iran
TLDRUpFront: After a brutal November repression of protesters in the new "Young Street" in Iran left a 1,000 dead and over 25,000 wounded; December was a quieter month for the regime in Tehran. The 40th day mourning rites for the November deaths, falling on December 25th and 26th, were preemptively disrupted by security forces which
09 Jan 2020
InfoMullet: Coda to Act I & Intro to Act II in the Aftermath of Soleimani

TLDRUpFront: A week out now’s a good time to review what’s happened in the aftermath of the strike against Soleimani. In this post I walk through how erroneous mental-models caused so many to miss Iran’s de-escalation signals, what those signals were, and leveraging what we now know to make a forecast of what may happen
03 Jan 2020
InfoMullet: A Backgrounder on General Soleimani

TLDRUpFront: A quick backgrounder on General Soleimani, commander of Iranian’s special forces and cornerstone of Iranian foreign policy, killed by a US military strike last night outside the Baghdad Airport. Possessing once-in-a-generation capabilities crossing military strategy and diplomacy both across state and non-state actors. Removing him creates a question as hard to answer as asking
11 Feb 2018
InfoMullet: Casus Drone
TLDRUpFront: Israeli entered the Syrian conflict today after a series of escalations that began with an Iranian drone-flight into Israel. By the end of the day one Israel aircraft had been downed by anti-aircraft fire and over a dozen Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah positions in Syria had either been struck or involved in counter-attacks.
10 Nov 2017
InfoMullet: Salman Spring

TLDR UpFront: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al Saud (MBS) has launched a revolution-from-above as radical as the Arab Spring’s grass roots effort seven years ago. The Prince is dismantling institutional power structures of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, attempting to reform its society, government, markets, security forces and even religious establishment. All this
07 Jun 2017
InfoMullet: The Ghost vs. The Shadow Commander – ISIS Attacks Iran

TLDR Up Front: In two separate attacks, militants struck simultaneously at the Iranian parliament and the mausoleum of the Grand Ayatollah Khomeini. Downplaying the attacks by focusing on casualties or containment is a serious mistake. Iranian politics exist in a precariously balanced ‘suspended equilibrium’ between formal Constitutional titular offices and informal factions of relationships
23 Jan 2017
InfoMullet: Rains of Moscow – the Red Wedding
TLDR Upfront: Contrary to doomsayer predictions of a new WWI between Russia and Turkey based on the assassination of an envoy in Ankara yesterday, pretty much the exact opposite happened. The beginnings of a Red Wedding scenario, a framework of cooperation between Russia, Turkey and Iran - excluding the US, NATO and the United Nations
08 Aug 2016
InfoMullet: Anatoldyaso
TLDR Upfront: Aside from obvious short-term civil and human rights concerns arising from Erdogan's purge, a medium-term risk looms large. Turkey's permanent exit off the pathway to European Union membership may signal an end to fifty-five year effort to integrate Turkey and the European mainland. Such a shift, especially if it included ejection from NATO
01 Oct 2010
HistoricalMullet: Are we at the precipice of formless war?
A few months ago I posted the defensive side of the policy questions - how do, or can, we proportionally respond to foreign cyber attacks?