Putin Archive
22 Aug 2022
Car bomb assassination kills Putin supporter outside of Moscow
TLDRUpFront: A car bomb outside Moscow killed Darya Dugina, an influential ultra-nationalist ideologue and Putin supporter. Russia is blaming Ukrainian special forces for the attack but it is too early to know much. It's possible that the attack targeted Darya, or her father Aleksandr, both of whom were using the vehicle just prior to the
04 Jul 2022
Analysis of Contingencies in Russia v. Ukraine & Far-Future Forecasts
TLDRUpFront: If Scenario #1 is most likely forecast through summer and fall – what contingencies could shift that forecast and another scenario? What is on the horizon in the long term for Russia and Ukraine?
03 Jul 2022
Reversion to a Mean Strategy: System Memories & Latent Constraints in Russia’s War on Ukraine
TLDRUpFront: A deeper dive into strategies and doctrines of Russia's invasion of Ukraine through a lense of complex systems analysis to help explain what has happened to now, and what is likely to happen in the future.
30 Jun 2022
Russia’s Slow Cook Offensive
TLDRUpFront: A MegaMullet review of Russia Ukrainian war from invasion through this week. Includes review of mid-game forecasts made in March and how the “most likely” Scenario #1 is very close to where we are today.
16 Mar 2022
Mid-Game Part 3: Five Scenarios through Mid-May
TLDRUpFront: Part 3 of 3 of the mid-game assessment forecasts five scenarios for the Russian Ukraine war over the next few weeks through mid-May, rated most likely to least likely.
04 Mar 2022
Russia Close to Connecting Land Bridge to Crimea
TLDRUpFront: Continued advances in the south mean Putin is only a few days from major operational success in connecting Crimea to Russia if Mairpoul falls. And even as offensives stall in punishing sieges in the north, only Mairpoul along with Mykolaiv and Odesa to the west keep Russia from taking the southern coastline of Ukraine.
02 Mar 2022
Improve Your Arguments: Russo-Ukrainian War Edition
TLDRUpFront: As we approach the first full week the InfoMullet provides a special "improve your arguments" Russu-Ukranian War edition.
01 Mar 2022
Russo-Ukranian War Day 6: Memento Mori
TLDRUpFront: Logistics failures halt advance towards capital even as Russia warns Kyiv residents to flee. Grozny Rules for Kharkiv and Chernihiv in the north and continued expansion in the Crimean breakout, surrounding Maripoul.
28 Feb 2022
The Russian invasion looks nothing like it should. Why? And what happens next?
TLDRUpFront: Comparing doctrine to results Russia's invasion of Ukraine is going badly so far. Whether because of incompetence, institutional sycophancy, or too-clever strategy: Putin has miscalculated. The invasion of Ukraine may go down as the largest strategic military blunder since the Iraq Invasion of 2003 – even if he makes territorial gains in the Donbas
26 Feb 2022
Russo-Ukraine War Day 3: Ukrainian Success Risks Escalation to ‘Grozny Rules’
TLDRUpFront: Ukraine is holding its own as the Russian military continues to struggle. But President Putin appears ready to unleash "Grozny Rules": a systemic approach of targeting dense populated areas with conventional and unconventional attacks. Used in Aleppo, Syria, and Grozny, Chechnya the goal is to crush resistance from a standoff range without having to
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